Premier League· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 | 0.13–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.83 | 0.97–2.69 | 0.73–2.94 | 2.930.60–5.26 |
| Shots on target | 4.02 | 2.16–5.88 | 1.67–6.38 | 5.10 | 3.39–6.80 | 2.92–7.27 | 9.124.59–13.65 |
| Total shots | 12.04 | 8.34–15.74 | 7.31–16.78 | 14.16 | 10.78–17.54 | 9.85–18.47 | 26.2017.16–35.24 |
| Shots in box | 6.25 | 3.74–8.77 | 2.87–9.64 | 10.79 | 8.49–13.09 | 7.69–13.89 | 17.0410.57–23.52 |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 | 1.69–4.85 | 1.15–5.39 | 4.08 | 2.66–5.49 | 2.18–5.98 | 7.353.33–11.37 |
| Corners | 4.36 | 2.15–6.56 | 1.56–7.16 | 5.96 | 3.98–7.93 | 3.44–8.47 | 10.315.00–15.63 |
| Possession % | 41.62 | 35.31–47.94 | 33.71–49.54 | 57.99 | 51.67–64.31 | 50.07–65.90 | — |
| Passes | 356 | 290–421 | 273–439 | 500 | 436–565 | 418–582 | 856691–1021 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.96 | 65.74–74.17 | 64.44–75.48 | 80.58 | 76.07–85.08 | 74.74–86.41 | — |
| Fouls | 15.35 | 12.49–18.20 | 11.60–19.09 | 12.64 | 9.69–15.58 | 8.78–16.50 | 27.9920.38–35.59 |
| Offsides | 1.25 | 0.04–2.46 | 0.00–2.81 | 1.67 | 0.51–2.84 | 0.18–3.17 | 2.930.00–5.98 |
| Yellow cards | 2.66 | 1.60–3.71 | 1.33–3.98 | 2.09 | 0.97–3.21 | 0.68–3.50 | 4.752.01–7.49 |
| Red cards | 0.17 | 0.02–0.33 | 0.00–0.48 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.270.00–0.91 |
| GK saves | 3.38 | 1.96–4.79 | 1.58–5.18 | 2.55 | 0.99–4.10 | 0.56–4.53 | 5.932.14–9.72 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
23%
55%
Shots on target
30%
57%
Total shots
30%
62%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
31%
14%
54%
Corners
26%
63%
Fouls
66%
27%
Offsides
29%
24%
47%
Yellow cards
51%
18%
31%
Red cards
15%
78%
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+