Premier League· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.51 | 0.33–2.77 | 0.89 | 0.03–1.75 | 0.00–1.99 | 2.440.11–4.77 |
| Shots on target | 4.29 | 2.43–6.14 | 1.93–6.64 | 3.90 | 2.19–5.60 | 1.72–6.07 | 8.183.65–12.71 |
| Total shots | 12.18 | 8.47–15.88 | 7.44–16.91 | 11.27 | 7.89–14.65 | 6.96–15.58 | 23.4514.40–32.49 |
| Shots in box | 8.47 | 5.95–10.99 | 5.09–11.85 | 7.35 | 5.05–9.65 | 4.25–10.45 | 15.829.34–22.30 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.96–5.12 | 1.42–5.66 | 2.95 | 1.54–4.37 | 1.05–4.86 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 5.23 | 3.03–7.44 | 2.43–8.03 | 4.74 | 2.76–6.71 | 2.22–7.25 | 9.974.65–15.29 |
| Possession % | 52.78 | 46.46–59.10 | 44.87–60.69 | 45.78 | 39.46–52.10 | 37.86–53.70 | — |
| Passes | 478 | 412–543 | 395–561 | 378 | 313–443 | 296–460 | 856691–1021 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.68 | 64.47–72.90 | 63.16–74.20 | 67.90 | 63.39–72.41 | 62.06–73.74 | — |
| Fouls | 11.83 | 8.98–14.69 | 8.09–15.58 | 13.30 | 10.36–16.25 | 9.44–17.16 | 25.1317.53–32.74 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.85 | 0.69–3.01 | 0.36–3.35 | 3.640.59–6.68 |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 | 0.70–2.81 | 0.42–3.08 | 1.99 | 0.87–3.11 | 0.58–3.40 | 3.741.01–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.89 | 1.47–4.30 | 1.08–4.69 | 2.51 | 0.96–4.07 | 0.53–4.50 | 5.401.61–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
26%
22%
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
Total shots
53%
39%
Shots in box
56%
34%
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
Corners
50%
37%
Fouls
35%
58%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
47%
17%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+