Premier League· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.27 | 1.30–3.23 | 1.04–3.49 | 0.68 | 0.00–1.54 | 0.00–1.79 | 2.950.62–5.28 |
| Shots on target | 3.70 | 1.84–5.56 | 1.34–6.05 | 3.59 | 1.88–5.30 | 1.41–5.76 | 7.292.76–11.82 |
| Total shots | 13.18 | 9.48–16.89 | 8.45–17.92 | 13.39 | 10.01–16.76 | 9.08–17.69 | 26.5717.52–35.61 |
| Shots in box | 11.78 | 9.26–14.30 | 8.40–15.16 | 4.78 | 2.48–7.09 | 1.69–7.88 | 16.5610.09–23.04 |
| Blocked shots | 4.49 | 2.91–6.07 | 2.37–6.61 | 2.15 | 0.73–3.56 | 0.25–4.05 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 6.86 | 4.65–9.06 | 4.06–9.66 | 3.13 | 1.16–5.11 | 0.62–5.65 | 9.994.68–15.31 |
| Possession % | 65.20 | 58.88–71.52 | 57.29–73.12 | 34.70 | 28.38–41.02 | 26.78–42.62 | — |
| Passes | 552 | 486–617 | 469–635 | 314 | 250–379 | 232–396 | 866701–1031 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.81 | 78.59–87.03 | 77.29–88.33 | 66.61 | 62.10–71.12 | 60.77–72.45 | — |
| Fouls | 10.70 | 7.85–13.56 | 6.96–14.45 | 14.01 | 11.06–16.95 | 10.14–17.87 | 24.7117.10–32.31 |
| Offsides | 1.87 | 0.66–3.08 | 0.32–3.43 | 1.93 | 0.77–3.10 | 0.44–3.43 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.75 | 2.61 | 1.49–3.73 | 1.20–4.02 | 4.031.30–6.77 |
| Red cards | 0.15 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.220.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.12 | 0.71–3.54 | 0.32–3.93 | 2.20 | 0.64–3.75 | 0.21–4.18 | 4.320.53–8.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
73%
17%
Shots on target
44%
15%
41%
Total shots
45%
48%
Shots in box
95%
Blocked shots
76%
Corners
85%
Fouls
22%
71%
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
Yellow cards
19%
18%
63%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
39%
20%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+