Premier League· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.14–2.07 | 0.00–2.33 | 1.57 | 0.71–2.43 | 0.47–2.68 | 2.680.35–5.00 |
| Shots on target | 3.69 | 1.83–5.54 | 1.33–6.04 | 4.72 | 3.02–6.43 | 2.55–6.90 | 8.413.88–12.94 |
| Total shots | 11.48 | 7.78–15.19 | 6.75–16.22 | 14.25 | 10.87–17.63 | 9.94–18.56 | 25.7416.69–34.78 |
| Shots in box | 7.26 | 4.74–9.78 | 3.88–10.64 | 8.54 | 6.24–10.84 | 5.44–11.64 | 15.809.32–22.28 |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 | 1.95–5.12 | 1.42–5.65 | 3.77 | 2.35–5.18 | 1.87–5.67 | 7.313.29–11.32 |
| Corners | 3.99 | 1.78–6.19 | 1.19–6.79 | 4.86 | 2.88–6.83 | 2.34–7.37 | 8.843.53–14.16 |
| Possession % | 45.26 | 38.94–51.58 | 37.35–53.18 | 54.36 | 48.04–60.68 | 46.45–62.28 | — |
| Passes | 395 | 330–461 | 312–478 | 479 | 414–544 | 397–561 | 874709–1039 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.12 | 68.90–77.33 | 67.60–78.64 | 80.42 | 75.91–84.93 | 74.58–86.26 | — |
| Fouls | 15.70 | 12.84–18.55 | 11.95–19.44 | 12.63 | 9.68–15.57 | 8.76–16.49 | 28.3220.72–35.93 |
| Offsides | 1.30 | 0.09–2.51 | 0.00–2.86 | 2.10 | 0.94–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.410.36–6.46 |
| Yellow cards | 2.35 | 1.30–3.41 | 1.03–3.68 | 2.22 | 1.10–3.34 | 0.81–3.63 | 4.581.84–7.31 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.51 | 2.09–4.92 | 1.70–5.31 | 2.17 | 0.62–3.73 | 0.19–4.16 | 5.681.89–9.47 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
25%
48%
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
Total shots
26%
67%
Shots in box
33%
58%
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
Corners
32%
13%
55%
Fouls
69%
25%
Offsides
23%
21%
56%
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
63%
15%
22%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+