Premier League· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.65–2.57 | 0.39–2.83 | 1.03 | 0.17–1.89 | 0.00–2.14 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.66 | 2.80–6.51 | 2.30–7.01 | 3.93 | 2.22–5.63 | 1.75–6.10 | 8.594.05–13.12 |
| Total shots | 14.27 | 10.57–17.98 | 9.54–19.01 | 11.63 | 8.25–15.01 | 7.32–15.94 | 25.9016.86–34.95 |
| Shots in box | 9.72 | 7.20–12.23 | 6.34–13.10 | 6.83 | 4.53–9.13 | 3.73–9.93 | 16.5510.07–23.03 |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.37–5.61 | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.19–4.99 | 6.582.56–10.60 |
| Corners | 5.62 | 3.41–7.82 | 2.82–8.42 | 3.88 | 1.90–5.86 | 1.36–6.39 | 9.504.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 49.12 | 42.80–55.44 | 41.20–57.03 | 51.49 | 45.17–57.81 | 43.57–59.41 | — |
| Passes | 386 | 321–452 | 303–469 | 428 | 364–493 | 346–510 | 815650–980 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.52 | 63.31–71.74 | 62.01–73.04 | 69.37 | 64.87–73.88 | 63.54–75.21 | — |
| Fouls | 12.88 | 10.03–15.74 | 9.14–16.63 | 14.91 | 11.96–17.85 | 11.04–18.77 | 27.7920.19–35.40 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.27–3.38 | 1.53 | 0.36–2.69 | 0.03–3.02 | 3.350.31–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.50–3.16 | 2.47 | 1.35–3.59 | 1.06–3.88 | 4.301.56–7.03 |
| Red cards | 0.12 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.32 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.240.00–0.88 |
| GK saves | 2.60 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.80–4.41 | 2.91 | 1.36–4.47 | 0.93–4.90 | 5.521.73–9.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
25%
24%
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
Total shots
66%
27%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
Corners
66%
23%
Fouls
32%
61%
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
Red cards
80%
GK saves
36%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+