Premier League· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.30 | 1.33–3.26 | 1.07–3.52 | 0.68 | 0.00–1.54 | 0.00–1.79 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 6.54 | 4.69–8.40 | 4.19–8.90 | 2.50 | 0.80–4.21 | 0.33–4.68 | 9.054.52–13.58 |
| Total shots | 18.37 | 14.66–22.07 | 13.63–23.10 | 8.33 | 4.95–11.71 | 4.02–12.64 | 26.7017.65–35.74 |
| Shots in box | 12.17 | 9.65–14.68 | 8.79–15.55 | 4.41 | 2.11–6.71 | 1.31–7.50 | 16.5710.09–23.05 |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 | 2.79–5.96 | 2.25–6.49 | 2.32 | 0.90–3.73 | 0.42–4.22 | 6.692.67–10.71 |
| Corners | 6.60 | 4.39–8.80 | 3.80–9.40 | 3.04 | 1.06–5.02 | 0.52–5.55 | 9.634.32–14.95 |
| Possession % | 63.10 | 56.78–69.42 | 55.18–71.01 | 36.19 | 29.87–42.51 | 28.27–44.11 | — |
| Passes | 558 | 493–624 | 475–641 | 329 | 264–393 | 247–411 | 887722–1052 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.63 | 78.41–86.84 | 77.11–88.14 | 65.35 | 60.85–69.86 | 59.52–71.19 | — |
| Fouls | 11.03 | 8.18–13.89 | 7.29–14.78 | 13.51 | 10.57–16.46 | 9.65–17.38 | 24.5516.94–32.15 |
| Offsides | 1.96 | 0.75–3.17 | 0.41–3.51 | 1.85 | 0.69–3.01 | 0.35–3.34 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.35–2.46 | 0.08–2.73 | 2.39 | 1.27–3.51 | 0.98–3.80 | 3.801.06–6.54 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 1.77 | 0.36–3.19 | 0.00–3.58 | 3.76 | 2.21–5.31 | 1.77–5.75 | 5.531.74–9.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
74%
17%
Shots on target
89%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
73%
16%
Corners
84%
Fouls
27%
66%
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
Yellow cards
22%
19%
59%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
14%
74%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+