Premier League· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 | 0.40–2.32 | 0.14–2.58 | 1.28 | 0.42–2.14 | 0.17–2.39 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.44 | 2.58–6.29 | 2.08–6.79 | 4.18 | 2.48–5.89 | 2.01–6.36 | 8.624.09–13.15 |
| Total shots | 11.53 | 7.83–15.24 | 6.80–16.27 | 12.07 | 8.69–15.45 | 7.76–16.38 | 23.6114.56–32.65 |
| Shots in box | 8.02 | 5.50–10.53 | 4.64–11.40 | 7.54 | 5.24–9.85 | 4.45–10.64 | 15.569.08–22.04 |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 | 1.50–4.67 | 0.97–5.20 | 3.13 | 1.71–4.54 | 1.23–5.03 | 6.212.19–10.23 |
| Corners | 5.28 | 3.07–7.48 | 2.48–8.08 | 4.55 | 2.57–6.53 | 2.04–7.07 | 9.834.51–15.15 |
| Possession % | 50.81 | 44.49–57.12 | 42.89–58.72 | 47.37 | 41.05–53.68 | 39.45–55.28 | — |
| Passes | 450 | 385–515 | 367–533 | 410 | 345–474 | 327–492 | 860695–1025 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.38 | 69.16–77.59 | 67.86–78.90 | 72.90 | 68.39–77.41 | 67.06–78.74 | — |
| Fouls | 12.34 | 9.49–15.20 | 8.60–16.09 | 12.24 | 9.29–15.18 | 8.37–16.10 | 24.5816.97–32.19 |
| Offsides | 2.77 | 1.57–3.98 | 1.22–4.33 | 1.80 | 0.64–2.97 | 0.31–3.30 | 4.581.53–7.63 |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 | 1.12–3.23 | 0.85–3.51 | 2.19 | 1.07–3.31 | 0.78–3.60 | 4.371.63–7.10 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.73 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.93–4.54 | 2.62 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 5.351.56–9.14 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
26%
35%
Shots on target
47%
14%
40%
Total shots
42%
50%
Shots in box
50%
40%
Blocked shots
41%
16%
42%
Corners
53%
35%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
58%
18%
24%
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+