Premier League· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 | 0.06–1.99 | 0.00–2.25 | 1.86 | 1.00–2.72 | 0.75–2.97 | 2.890.56–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 3.50 | 1.64–5.35 | 1.14–5.85 | 4.93 | 3.23–6.64 | 2.76–7.11 | 8.433.90–12.96 |
| Total shots | 11.01 | 7.31–14.71 | 6.27–15.74 | 14.00 | 10.62–17.38 | 9.69–18.31 | 25.0115.97–34.06 |
| Shots in box | 6.71 | 4.20–9.23 | 3.33–10.09 | 9.11 | 6.81–11.41 | 6.01–12.20 | 15.829.34–22.30 |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 | 1.40–4.57 | 0.86–5.10 | 3.21 | 1.79–4.62 | 1.31–5.11 | 6.192.17–10.21 |
| Corners | 3.95 | 1.74–6.15 | 1.15–6.75 | 4.86 | 2.88–6.83 | 2.34–7.37 | 8.803.49–14.12 |
| Possession % | 40.78 | 34.46–47.10 | 32.86–48.69 | 61.54 | 55.22–67.86 | 53.63–69.46 | — |
| Passes | 329 | 263–394 | 246–412 | 509 | 445–574 | 427–591 | 838673–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.69 | 61.48–69.91 | 60.18–71.21 | 79.18 | 74.68–83.69 | 73.35–85.02 | — |
| Fouls | 15.80 | 12.95–18.66 | 12.06–19.55 | 12.60 | 9.66–15.55 | 8.74–16.47 | 28.4020.80–36.01 |
| Offsides | 1.94 | 0.73–3.15 | 0.39–3.49 | 2.05 | 0.89–3.21 | 0.56–3.55 | 3.990.94–7.04 |
| Yellow cards | 2.76 | 1.70–3.82 | 1.43–4.09 | 2.21 | 1.09–3.33 | 0.80–3.62 | 4.972.23–7.71 |
| Red cards | 0.20 | 0.05–0.36 | 0.00–0.51 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.320.00–0.96 |
| GK saves | 3.09 | 1.67–4.50 | 1.28–4.89 | 2.35 | 0.80–3.91 | 0.37–4.34 | 5.441.65–9.23 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
23%
57%
Shots on target
25%
63%
Total shots
24%
69%
Shots in box
23%
68%
Blocked shots
38%
16%
45%
Corners
32%
13%
55%
Fouls
69%
24%
Offsides
38%
21%
42%
Yellow cards
51%
18%
32%
Red cards
17%
74%
GK saves
54%
17%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+