Premier League· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 | 0.13–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.46 | 0.60–2.32 | 0.36–2.57 | 2.550.23–4.88 |
| Shots on target | 3.93 | 2.08–5.79 | 1.58–6.29 | 4.48 | 2.78–6.19 | 2.31–6.66 | 8.423.89–12.95 |
| Total shots | 12.92 | 9.22–16.62 | 8.19–17.66 | 14.66 | 11.28–18.04 | 10.35–18.97 | 27.5818.54–36.63 |
| Shots in box | 8.33 | 5.82–10.85 | 4.95–11.71 | 9.25 | 6.95–11.55 | 6.15–12.35 | 17.5811.11–24.06 |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 | 1.88–5.05 | 1.35–5.59 | 3.83 | 2.41–5.24 | 1.92–5.73 | 7.293.27–11.31 |
| Corners | 4.41 | 2.20–6.61 | 1.61–7.21 | 4.88 | 2.90–6.86 | 2.36–7.39 | 9.283.97–14.60 |
| Possession % | 47.95 | 41.64–54.27 | 40.04–55.87 | 51.60 | 45.28–57.92 | 43.69–59.52 | — |
| Passes | 419 | 353–484 | 336–502 | 429 | 364–493 | 346–511 | 847682–1012 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.35 | 62.14–70.57 | 60.84–71.87 | 70.12 | 65.61–74.62 | 64.28–75.95 | — |
| Fouls | 14.65 | 11.80–17.51 | 10.91–18.40 | 12.09 | 9.14–15.04 | 8.23–15.95 | 26.7419.14–34.35 |
| Offsides | 2.44 | 1.23–3.65 | 0.89–4.00 | 1.64 | 0.48–2.81 | 0.15–3.14 | 4.091.04–7.14 |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 | 1.38–3.50 | 1.11–3.77 | 1.75 | 0.63–2.87 | 0.34–3.16 | 4.191.45–6.93 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.08 | 1.67–4.50 | 1.28–4.88 | 2.73 | 1.17–4.28 | 0.74–4.71 | 5.812.02–9.60 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
26%
46%
Shots on target
36%
14%
51%
Total shots
33%
59%
Shots in box
37%
54%
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
Corners
37%
13%
50%
Fouls
66%
28%
Offsides
55%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
53%
19%
28%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+