Premier League· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 | 0.68–2.60 | 0.42–2.86 | 1.05 | 0.20–1.91 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.700.37–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.62 | 3.76–7.47 | 3.26–7.97 | 3.24 | 1.54–4.95 | 1.07–5.42 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 14.62 | 10.91–18.32 | 9.88–19.35 | 10.97 | 7.59–14.35 | 6.66–15.28 | 25.5916.54–34.63 |
| Shots in box | 10.67 | 8.15–13.18 | 7.29–14.05 | 7.14 | 4.84–9.44 | 4.04–10.24 | 17.8111.33–24.29 |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 | 2.64–5.80 | 2.10–6.34 | 2.87 | 1.45–4.28 | 0.97–4.77 | 7.093.07–11.11 |
| Corners | 6.16 | 3.96–8.37 | 3.36–8.96 | 4.11 | 2.13–6.09 | 1.59–6.62 | 10.274.95–15.59 |
| Possession % | 59.39 | 53.08–65.71 | 51.48–67.31 | 39.83 | 33.51–46.15 | 31.91–47.74 | — |
| Passes | 512 | 447–578 | 429–595 | 332 | 267–396 | 249–414 | 844679–1009 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.15 | 70.94–79.37 | 69.64–80.67 | 64.48 | 59.98–68.99 | 58.65–70.32 | — |
| Fouls | 12.03 | 9.17–14.88 | 8.28–15.77 | 16.59 | 13.65–19.54 | 12.73–20.46 | 28.6221.01–36.22 |
| Offsides | 1.53 | 0.32–2.74 | 0.00–3.08 | 2.06 | 0.89–3.22 | 0.56–3.55 | 3.590.54–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.35–2.46 | 0.08–2.73 | 2.47 | 1.35–3.59 | 1.06–3.88 | 3.881.14–6.62 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.200.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 2.35 | 0.93–3.76 | 0.54–4.15 | 3.14 | 1.58–4.69 | 1.15–5.12 | 5.481.69–9.27 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
25%
24%
Shots on target
74%
16%
Total shots
73%
21%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
17%
78%
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
Yellow cards
21%
19%
61%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
29%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+