Premier League· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.82 | 0.00–1.78 | 0.00–2.04 | 1.86 | 1.01–2.72 | 0.76–2.97 | 2.680.35–5.01 |
| Shots on target | 3.95 | 2.09–5.80 | 1.59–6.30 | 2.82 | 1.11–4.53 | 0.64–4.99 | 6.762.23–11.29 |
| Total shots | 11.90 | 8.20–15.60 | 7.16–16.63 | 13.14 | 9.76–16.51 | 8.83–17.44 | 25.0315.99–34.08 |
| Shots in box | 6.16 | 3.65–8.68 | 2.78–9.55 | 8.94 | 6.64–11.25 | 5.85–12.04 | 15.118.63–21.59 |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 | 1.40–4.57 | 0.87–5.11 | 3.21 | 1.80–4.63 | 1.31–5.11 | 6.202.18–10.22 |
| Corners | 4.73 | 2.53–6.94 | 1.93–7.53 | 5.17 | 3.19–7.15 | 2.66–7.69 | 9.904.59–15.22 |
| Possession % | 39.80 | 33.48–46.12 | 31.89–47.71 | 61.17 | 54.85–67.49 | 53.25–69.09 | — |
| Passes | 336 | 271–402 | 253–419 | 515 | 450–580 | 433–597 | 851686–1016 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.21 | 60.99–69.42 | 59.69–70.73 | 79.30 | 74.80–83.81 | 73.47–85.14 | — |
| Fouls | 13.66 | 10.80–16.51 | 9.91–17.40 | 11.93 | 8.99–14.88 | 8.07–15.80 | 25.5917.99–33.20 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.23 | 0.46–3.57 | 1.55 | 0.39–2.71 | 0.05–3.04 | 3.570.52–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 | 1.26–3.38 | 0.99–3.65 | 1.98 | 0.86–3.10 | 0.57–3.39 | 4.301.56–7.04 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 1.99 | 0.57–3.40 | 0.18–3.79 | 3.23 | 1.68–4.79 | 1.25–5.22 | 5.221.43–9.01 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
16%
22%
62%
Shots on target
59%
14%
26%
Total shots
36%
56%
Shots in box
20%
72%
Blocked shots
38%
16%
45%
Corners
38%
49%
Fouls
60%
33%
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
22%
16%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+