Premier League· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.89 | 0.00–1.86 | 0.00–2.12 | 1.81 | 0.95–2.67 | 0.70–2.91 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 3.24 | 1.39–5.10 | 0.89–5.60 | 5.63 | 3.92–7.33 | 3.45–7.80 | 8.874.34–13.40 |
| Total shots | 11.31 | 7.61–15.02 | 6.58–16.05 | 16.73 | 13.35–20.11 | 12.42–21.04 | 28.0419.00–37.09 |
| Shots in box | 6.71 | 4.19–9.22 | 3.32–10.09 | 10.86 | 8.56–13.16 | 7.76–13.96 | 17.5611.09–24.04 |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 | 1.56–4.73 | 1.02–5.26 | 4.27 | 2.85–5.68 | 2.37–6.17 | 7.413.39–11.43 |
| Corners | 3.59 | 1.38–5.79 | 0.79–6.39 | 5.38 | 3.41–7.36 | 2.87–7.90 | 8.973.66–14.29 |
| Possession % | 41.24 | 34.92–47.55 | 33.32–49.15 | 58.23 | 51.91–64.55 | 50.31–66.15 | — |
| Passes | 355 | 290–420 | 272–438 | 508 | 444–573 | 426–590 | 863698–1028 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.15 | 63.93–72.36 | 62.63–73.67 | 80.82 | 76.32–85.33 | 74.98–86.66 | — |
| Fouls | 16.89 | 14.03–19.74 | 13.14–20.63 | 11.76 | 8.82–14.71 | 7.90–15.63 | 28.6521.04–36.25 |
| Offsides | 1.84 | 0.63–3.05 | 0.29–3.39 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.80 | 0.14–3.13 | 3.470.42–6.52 |
| Yellow cards | 2.58 | 1.53–3.64 | 1.25–3.91 | 1.65 | 0.53–2.77 | 0.24–3.06 | 4.241.50–6.98 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.63 | 2.22–5.05 | 1.83–5.44 | 2.58 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 6.222.43–10.01 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
18%
23%
59%
Shots on target
16%
74%
Total shots
13%
82%
Shots in box
13%
81%
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
Corners
22%
67%
Fouls
81%
15%
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
Yellow cards
58%
18%
24%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
58%
15%
26%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+