Premier League· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 | 0.00–1.92 | 0.00–2.18 | 1.67 | 0.81–2.53 | 0.56–2.77 | 2.630.30–4.96 |
| Shots on target | 3.81 | 1.95–5.66 | 1.45–6.16 | 4.45 | 2.74–6.16 | 2.28–6.63 | 8.263.73–12.79 |
| Total shots | 11.65 | 7.94–15.35 | 6.91–16.38 | 12.61 | 9.23–15.98 | 8.30–16.91 | 24.2515.21–33.30 |
| Shots in box | 7.27 | 4.75–9.78 | 3.89–10.65 | 8.33 | 6.03–10.64 | 5.24–11.43 | 15.609.12–22.08 |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 | 1.28–4.45 | 0.74–4.98 | 3.46 | 2.04–4.87 | 1.55–5.36 | 6.322.30–10.34 |
| Corners | 3.84 | 1.64–6.05 | 1.04–6.64 | 5.19 | 3.21–7.17 | 2.67–7.71 | 9.033.72–14.35 |
| Possession % | 36.85 | 30.54–43.17 | 28.94–44.77 | 62.96 | 56.65–69.28 | 55.05–70.88 | — |
| Passes | 284 | 219–350 | 201–367 | 503 | 438–568 | 421–585 | 787622–952 |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.69 | 58.47–66.90 | 57.17–68.20 | 79.48 | 74.97–83.98 | 73.64–85.31 | — |
| Fouls | 14.81 | 11.96–17.67 | 11.07–18.56 | 13.16 | 10.22–16.11 | 9.30–17.03 | 27.9820.37–35.58 |
| Offsides | 2.10 | 0.89–3.31 | 0.55–3.66 | 2.11 | 0.94–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 4.211.16–7.26 |
| Yellow cards | 2.85 | 1.80–3.91 | 1.53–4.18 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 4.782.04–7.52 |
| Red cards | 0.17 | 0.02–0.32 | 0.00–0.47 | 0.14 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.00–0.47 | 0.300.00–0.95 |
| GK saves | 3.04 | 1.62–4.45 | 1.24–4.84 | 2.59 | 1.04–4.15 | 0.61–4.58 | 5.631.84–9.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
22%
24%
54%
Shots on target
34%
14%
52%
Total shots
38%
54%
Shots in box
35%
56%
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
59%
34%
Offsides
40%
20%
40%
Yellow cards
57%
17%
25%
Red cards
14%
75%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+