Premier League· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 | 0.72–2.64 | 0.46–2.90 | 1.12 | 0.26–1.98 | 0.01–2.22 | 2.800.47–5.13 |
| Shots on target | 5.35 | 3.50–7.21 | 3.00–7.71 | 3.51 | 1.80–5.22 | 1.34–5.69 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 15.71 | 12.01–19.42 | 10.98–20.45 | 11.15 | 7.77–14.52 | 6.84–15.46 | 26.8617.82–35.90 |
| Shots in box | 9.06 | 6.55–11.58 | 5.68–12.44 | 6.93 | 4.62–9.23 | 3.83–10.02 | 15.999.51–22.47 |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 | 2.12–5.29 | 1.58–5.82 | 3.27 | 1.86–4.69 | 1.37–5.17 | 6.982.96–11.00 |
| Corners | 5.94 | 3.74–8.15 | 3.14–8.74 | 4.11 | 2.13–6.09 | 1.60–6.63 | 10.054.74–15.37 |
| Possession % | 52.88 | 46.57–59.20 | 44.97–60.80 | 47.50 | 41.18–53.82 | 39.58–55.41 | — |
| Passes | 411 | 346–477 | 328–494 | 393 | 328–457 | 310–475 | 804639–969 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.16 | 73.95–82.38 | 72.65–83.68 | 76.98 | 72.47–81.48 | 71.14–82.81 | — |
| Fouls | 12.36 | 9.50–15.22 | 8.62–16.10 | 16.14 | 13.20–19.09 | 12.28–20.01 | 28.5020.90–36.11 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.24–3.35 | 1.48 | 0.32–2.65 | 0.00–2.98 | 3.280.23–6.32 |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 | 1.00–3.11 | 0.73–3.38 | 2.58 | 1.46–3.70 | 1.17–3.99 | 4.631.89–7.37 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.46 | 1.05–3.88 | 0.66–4.26 | 3.19 | 1.63–4.74 | 1.20–5.17 | 5.651.86–9.44 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
24%
25%
Shots on target
67%
21%
Total shots
78%
16%
Shots in box
66%
25%
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
Corners
66%
23%
Fouls
21%
73%
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+