Premier League· Regular Season - 28· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 | 0.71–2.63 | 0.45–2.89 | 1.25 | 0.39–2.11 | 0.15–2.36 | 2.930.60–5.26 |
| Shots on target | 4.86 | 3.00–6.71 | 2.50–7.21 | 4.08 | 2.38–5.79 | 1.91–6.26 | 8.944.41–13.47 |
| Total shots | 14.75 | 11.05–18.45 | 10.02–19.48 | 12.59 | 9.21–15.96 | 8.28–16.90 | 27.3418.29–36.38 |
| Shots in box | 9.81 | 7.30–12.33 | 6.43–13.19 | 8.00 | 5.70–10.30 | 4.90–11.10 | 17.8111.34–24.29 |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 | 2.07–5.24 | 1.53–5.77 | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.00–4.80 | 6.552.54–10.57 |
| Corners | 5.05 | 2.84–7.25 | 2.25–7.85 | 4.80 | 2.82–6.78 | 2.28–7.31 | 9.854.53–15.16 |
| Possession % | 53.17 | 46.85–59.49 | 45.26–61.08 | 45.20 | 38.88–51.52 | 37.29–53.12 | — |
| Passes | 428 | 363–493 | 345–511 | 358 | 293–422 | 276–440 | 786621–951 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.70 | 64.49–72.92 | 63.19–74.22 | 66.47 | 61.96–70.98 | 60.63–72.31 | — |
| Fouls | 14.49 | 11.64–17.35 | 10.75–18.24 | 12.73 | 9.78–15.67 | 8.86–16.59 | 27.2219.62–34.83 |
| Offsides | 2.11 | 0.90–3.32 | 0.55–3.66 | 1.99 | 0.83–3.16 | 0.50–3.49 | 4.101.05–7.15 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.28 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 3.981.24–6.72 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.66 | 1.25–4.07 | 0.86–4.46 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 5.671.88–9.46 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
24%
29%
Shots on target
53%
13%
33%
Total shots
62%
30%
Shots in box
62%
29%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
Corners
47%
40%
Fouls
60%
33%
Offsides
42%
20%
38%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+