Premier League· Regular Season - 29· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.25 | 0.07–2.51 | 1.56 | 0.70–2.42 | 0.45–2.67 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 4.56 | 2.70–6.41 | 2.20–6.91 | 4.43 | 2.72–6.14 | 2.25–6.60 | 8.994.46–13.52 |
| Total shots | 14.05 | 10.34–17.75 | 9.31–18.78 | 12.26 | 8.89–15.64 | 7.95–16.57 | 26.3117.27–35.35 |
| Shots in box | 8.44 | 5.92–10.96 | 5.06–11.82 | 7.95 | 5.64–10.25 | 4.85–11.04 | 16.389.91–22.86 |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 | 2.47–5.64 | 1.94–6.17 | 2.90 | 1.49–4.31 | 1.00–4.80 | 6.962.94–10.98 |
| Corners | 4.32 | 2.11–6.52 | 1.52–7.12 | 4.48 | 2.50–6.45 | 1.96–6.99 | 8.793.48–14.11 |
| Possession % | 47.20 | 40.88–53.52 | 39.28–55.11 | 54.70 | 48.38–61.01 | 46.78–62.61 | — |
| Passes | 395 | 330–460 | 312–478 | 462 | 398–527 | 380–545 | 858692–1023 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.34 | 70.13–78.56 | 68.82–79.86 | 78.99 | 74.48–83.50 | 73.15–84.83 | — |
| Fouls | 13.27 | 10.41–16.12 | 9.52–17.01 | 12.99 | 10.05–15.94 | 9.13–16.86 | 26.2618.65–33.86 |
| Offsides | 1.52 | 0.31–2.73 | 0.00–3.08 | 2.37 | 1.20–3.53 | 0.87–3.86 | 3.890.84–6.94 |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 | 1.21–3.32 | 0.94–3.59 | 2.09 | 0.97–3.21 | 0.68–3.50 | 4.351.61–7.09 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.200.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.98–4.59 | 3.09 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 5.882.09–9.67 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
25%
44%
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
50%
40%
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
Corners
41%
14%
45%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
24%
19%
56%
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+