Premier League· Regular Season - 29· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 | 0.80–2.73 | 0.54–2.99 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 2.920.59–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 4.52 | 2.66–6.37 | 2.16–6.87 | 4.36 | 2.66–6.07 | 2.19–6.54 | 8.884.35–13.41 |
| Total shots | 13.72 | 10.02–17.42 | 8.99–18.46 | 13.37 | 9.99–16.75 | 9.06–17.68 | 27.0918.05–36.13 |
| Shots in box | 9.50 | 6.99–12.02 | 6.12–12.88 | 8.33 | 6.03–10.63 | 5.23–11.43 | 17.8311.36–24.31 |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 | 2.04–5.21 | 1.50–5.74 | 3.20 | 1.79–4.62 | 1.30–5.10 | 6.822.81–10.84 |
| Corners | 5.05 | 2.85–7.26 | 2.25–7.85 | 4.84 | 2.86–6.82 | 2.32–7.35 | 9.894.57–15.21 |
| Possession % | 56.03 | 49.71–62.35 | 48.12–63.95 | 43.14 | 36.82–49.46 | 35.22–51.06 | — |
| Passes | 482 | 417–548 | 399–565 | 373 | 308–437 | 290–455 | 855690–1020 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.22 | 66.00–74.43 | 64.70–75.74 | 69.28 | 64.78–73.79 | 63.45–75.12 | — |
| Fouls | 12.71 | 9.85–15.57 | 8.97–16.45 | 12.25 | 9.30–15.19 | 8.38–16.11 | 24.9517.35–32.56 |
| Offsides | 1.98 | 0.77–3.19 | 0.42–3.53 | 2.03 | 0.87–3.19 | 0.53–3.52 | 4.010.96–7.05 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.98 | 1.86 | 0.74–2.98 | 0.45–3.27 | 3.500.77–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.78 | 1.36–4.19 | 0.97–4.58 | 2.91 | 1.35–4.46 | 0.92–4.89 | 5.681.90–9.47 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
23%
25%
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
Total shots
49%
43%
Shots in box
56%
35%
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
Corners
46%
41%
Fouls
50%
42%
Offsides
39%
21%
41%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+