Premier League· Regular Season - 30· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.14–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.63 | 0.77–2.49 | 0.53–2.74 | 2.730.41–5.06 |
| Shots on target | 3.41 | 1.55–5.26 | 1.05–5.76 | 4.60 | 2.89–6.30 | 2.42–6.77 | 8.003.47–12.53 |
| Total shots | 10.99 | 7.28–14.69 | 6.25–15.72 | 14.01 | 10.63–17.39 | 9.70–18.32 | 25.0015.96–34.04 |
| Shots in box | 7.07 | 4.55–9.59 | 3.69–10.45 | 8.65 | 6.35–10.95 | 5.55–11.75 | 15.729.24–22.20 |
| Blocked shots | 2.68 | 1.09–4.26 | 0.56–4.80 | 3.52 | 2.11–4.94 | 1.62–5.42 | 6.202.18–10.22 |
| Corners | 4.56 | 2.35–6.77 | 1.76–7.36 | 5.09 | 3.11–7.07 | 2.58–7.61 | 9.654.34–14.97 |
| Possession % | 41.16 | 34.84–47.47 | 33.24–49.07 | 58.53 | 52.21–64.84 | 50.61–66.44 | — |
| Passes | 328 | 263–393 | 245–411 | 481 | 417–546 | 399–563 | 809644–974 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.67 | 59.46–67.89 | 58.15–69.19 | 74.31 | 69.80–78.82 | 68.47–80.15 | — |
| Fouls | 12.16 | 9.31–15.02 | 8.42–15.91 | 12.81 | 9.86–15.75 | 8.94–16.67 | 24.9717.36–32.58 |
| Offsides | 2.63 | 1.42–3.84 | 1.07–4.18 | 1.87 | 0.71–3.04 | 0.38–3.37 | 4.501.45–7.55 |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 | 1.12–3.23 | 0.85–3.50 | 1.73 | 0.61–2.85 | 0.32–3.14 | 3.911.17–6.65 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.06 | 1.64–4.47 | 1.25–4.86 | 2.57 | 1.02–4.13 | 0.59–4.56 | 5.631.84–9.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
25%
50%
Shots on target
27%
13%
59%
Total shots
24%
69%
Shots in box
30%
61%
Blocked shots
29%
16%
55%
Corners
37%
50%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
54%
18%
27%
Yellow cards
48%
21%
31%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+