Premier League· Regular Season - 30· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 | 1.17–3.10 | 0.91–3.36 | 0.73 | 0.00–1.59 | 0.00–1.84 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 6.23 | 4.37–8.09 | 3.87–8.58 | 2.86 | 1.15–4.57 | 0.68–5.03 | 9.094.56–13.62 |
| Total shots | 17.47 | 13.77–21.18 | 12.74–22.21 | 10.37 | 6.99–13.75 | 6.06–14.68 | 27.8418.80–36.89 |
| Shots in box | 11.90 | 9.38–14.41 | 8.51–15.28 | 5.38 | 3.08–7.68 | 2.28–8.48 | 17.2810.80–23.76 |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 | 2.88–6.05 | 2.35–6.58 | 2.50 | 1.09–3.92 | 0.60–4.41 | 6.972.95–10.99 |
| Corners | 6.12 | 3.92–8.33 | 3.32–8.93 | 3.44 | 1.46–5.42 | 0.93–5.96 | 9.574.25–14.88 |
| Possession % | 60.11 | 53.80–66.43 | 52.20–68.03 | 39.03 | 32.71–45.35 | 31.12–46.95 | — |
| Passes | 525 | 459–590 | 442–608 | 335 | 270–400 | 253–417 | 860695–1025 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.46 | 77.25–85.68 | 75.95–86.98 | 66.67 | 62.16–71.17 | 60.83–72.50 | — |
| Fouls | 12.33 | 9.47–15.18 | 8.59–16.07 | 15.44 | 12.49–18.38 | 11.57–19.30 | 27.7620.16–35.37 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.28–3.38 | 2.22 | 1.06–3.39 | 0.73–3.72 | 4.051.01–7.10 |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 | 0.41–2.52 | 0.14–2.79 | 2.26 | 1.14–3.38 | 0.85–3.67 | 3.730.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.13 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.00–0.47 | 0.190.00–0.84 |
| GK saves | 2.07 | 0.65–3.48 | 0.27–3.87 | 3.77 | 2.22–5.33 | 1.79–5.76 | 5.842.05–9.63 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
70%
19%
Shots on target
83%
Total shots
90%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
71%
17%
Corners
76%
15%
Fouls
25%
69%
Offsides
32%
20%
47%
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
18%
13%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+