Premier League· Regular Season - 30· · Arena Khimki· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 | 0.36–2.29 | 0.10–2.55 | 1.25 | 0.39–2.11 | 0.15–2.36 | 2.580.25–4.90 |
| Shots on target | 4.45 | 2.60–6.31 | 2.10–6.81 | 4.15 | 2.45–5.86 | 1.98–6.33 | 8.614.08–13.14 |
| Total shots | 13.31 | 9.60–17.01 | 8.57–18.04 | 12.87 | 9.49–16.25 | 8.56–17.18 | 26.1817.13–35.22 |
| Shots in box | 7.93 | 5.42–10.45 | 4.55–11.31 | 8.33 | 6.03–10.63 | 5.23–11.43 | 16.269.78–22.74 |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 | 1.82–4.99 | 1.29–5.52 | 3.00 | 1.58–4.41 | 1.10–4.90 | 6.402.38–10.42 |
| Corners | 5.01 | 2.80–7.21 | 2.21–7.81 | 4.89 | 2.91–6.87 | 2.37–7.40 | 9.894.58–15.21 |
| Possession % | 48.41 | 42.09–54.73 | 40.49–56.32 | 52.57 | 46.25–58.89 | 44.66–60.49 | — |
| Passes | 382 | 317–448 | 299–465 | 395 | 331–460 | 313–477 | 778612–943 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.86 | 63.65–72.08 | 62.34–73.38 | 68.53 | 64.02–73.04 | 62.69–74.37 | — |
| Fouls | 13.34 | 10.49–16.20 | 9.60–17.08 | 14.66 | 11.72–17.61 | 10.80–18.53 | 28.0120.40–35.61 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.41 | 2.24 | 1.08–3.40 | 0.74–3.74 | 4.101.05–7.15 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.29 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.811.07–6.54 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.70 | 1.28–4.11 | 0.89–4.50 | 2.87 | 1.32–4.43 | 0.89–4.86 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
27%
35%
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
Total shots
49%
43%
Shots in box
41%
49%
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
37%
56%
Offsides
33%
20%
47%
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+