Bundesliga· Regular Season - 6· · Tivoli Stadion Tirol· referee: not announced
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 | 0.54–2.46 | 0.28–2.72 | 2.00 | 1.16 | 0.30–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 2.00 | 2.65act. 4.00 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.09–6.80 | 2.59–7.30 | 7.00 | 3.87 | 2.16–5.57 | 1.69–6.04 | 4.00 | 8.81act. 11.00 |
| Total shots | 15.04 | 11.34–18.75 | 10.31–19.78 | 16.00 | 10.46 | 7.08–13.84 | 6.15–14.77 | 5.00 | 25.50act. 21.00 |
| Shots in box | 9.25 | 6.74–11.77 | 5.87–12.64 | 9.00 | 6.75 | 4.45–9.06 | 3.66–9.85 | 4.00 | 16.01act. 13.00 |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 | 2.55–5.72 | 2.01–6.25 | 6.00 | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.89–4.69 | 0.00 | 6.92act. 6.00 |
| Corners | 5.87 | 3.66–8.07 | 3.07–8.67 | 14.00 | 4.64 | 2.66–6.62 | 2.12–7.16 | 5.00 | 10.51act. 19.00 |
| Possession % | 50.47 | 44.15–56.79 | 42.56–58.38 | 66.00 | 49.61 | 43.29–55.92 | 41.69–57.52 | 34.00 | — |
| Passes | 428 | 363–494 | 345–511 | 539 | 417 | 353–482 | 335–499 | 285 | 846act. 824 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.22 | 70.00–78.44 | 68.70–79.74 | — | 75.31 | 70.80–79.82 | 69.47–81.15 | — | — |
| Fouls | 9.53 | 6.67–12.39 | 5.79–13.27 | 10.00 | 12.40 | 9.45–15.34 | 8.53–16.26 | 13.00 | 21.93act. 23.00 |
| Offsides | 1.36 | 0.15–2.57 | 0.00–2.92 | 2.00 | 2.36 | 1.20–3.52 | 0.86–3.85 | 2.00 | 3.72act. 4.00 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.21 | 0.00 | 1.95 | 0.83–3.07 | 0.54–3.36 | 0.00 | 3.83act. 0.00 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11act. 0.00 |
| GK saves | 2.66 | 1.25–4.08 | 0.86–4.47 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 1.74–4.85 | 1.31–5.28 | 5.00 | 5.96act. 7.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
26%
29%
Shots on target
58%
30%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
69%
23%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
59%
30%
Fouls
24%
69%
Offsides
21%
19%
60%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+