Bundesliga· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.25 | 1.29–3.21 | 1.03–3.47 | 0.95 | 0.09–1.81 | 0.00–2.06 | 3.200.87–5.53 |
| Shots on target | 5.98 | 4.12–7.83 | 3.62–8.33 | 3.96 | 2.25–5.67 | 1.78–6.13 | 9.945.41–14.47 |
| Total shots | 15.21 | 11.50–18.91 | 10.47–19.94 | 11.47 | 8.09–14.85 | 7.16–15.78 | 26.6817.63–35.72 |
| Shots in box | 11.46 | 8.94–13.97 | 8.07–14.84 | 6.58 | 4.28–8.88 | 3.48–9.68 | 18.0411.56–24.51 |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 | 2.65–5.82 | 2.12–6.35 | 2.91 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.01–4.81 | 7.143.13–11.16 |
| Corners | 6.06 | 3.86–8.27 | 3.26–8.86 | 3.90 | 1.92–5.87 | 1.38–6.41 | 9.964.64–15.27 |
| Possession % | 59.95 | 53.64–66.27 | 52.04–67.87 | 40.54 | 34.22–46.86 | 32.62–48.45 | — |
| Passes | 624 | 559–689 | 541–707 | 415 | 350–479 | 333–497 | 1039874–1204 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.53 | 75.32–83.75 | 74.01–85.05 | 70.08 | 65.57–74.59 | 64.24–75.92 | — |
| Fouls | 8.42 | 5.56–11.28 | 4.68–12.16 | 10.81 | 7.86–13.76 | 6.95–14.67 | 19.2311.63–26.84 |
| Offsides | 2.30 | 1.09–3.51 | 0.75–3.86 | 1.59 | 0.43–2.76 | 0.10–3.09 | 3.900.85–6.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 | 0.44–2.55 | 0.16–2.82 | 2.08 | 0.96–3.20 | 0.67–3.49 | 3.570.83–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.74 | 1.33–4.16 | 0.94–4.55 | 3.46 | 1.90–5.01 | 1.47–5.44 | 6.202.41–9.99 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
67%
19%
15%
Shots on target
68%
21%
Total shots
73%
21%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
70%
20%
Fouls
25%
67%
Offsides
54%
20%
26%
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+