Bundesliga· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 | 0.28–2.21 | 0.02–2.47 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.04–2.26 | 2.400.07–4.73 |
| Shots on target | 4.54 | 2.68–6.39 | 2.18–6.89 | 3.94 | 2.23–5.65 | 1.76–6.12 | 8.483.94–13.01 |
| Total shots | 12.96 | 9.25–16.66 | 8.22–17.69 | 11.45 | 8.07–14.83 | 7.14–15.76 | 24.4115.36–33.45 |
| Shots in box | 7.92 | 5.40–10.43 | 4.54–11.30 | 7.39 | 5.09–9.69 | 4.29–10.49 | 15.318.83–21.79 |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 | 2.01–5.18 | 1.48–5.72 | 3.30 | 1.89–4.72 | 1.40–5.20 | 6.902.88–10.92 |
| Corners | 5.48 | 3.27–7.68 | 2.68–8.28 | 4.64 | 2.66–6.61 | 2.12–7.15 | 10.114.80–15.43 |
| Possession % | 50.85 | 44.53–57.16 | 42.93–58.76 | 49.88 | 43.56–56.19 | 41.96–57.79 | — |
| Passes | 430 | 365–496 | 347–513 | 409 | 344–473 | 327–491 | 839674–1004 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.21 | 63.00–71.43 | 61.70–72.73 | 71.12 | 66.61–75.62 | 65.28–76.95 | — |
| Fouls | 10.77 | 7.92–13.63 | 7.03–14.52 | 11.07 | 8.12–14.01 | 7.21–14.93 | 21.8414.24–29.45 |
| Offsides | 1.41 | 0.20–2.62 | 0.00–2.96 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.98 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.220.17–6.27 |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 | 1.07–3.19 | 0.80–3.46 | 2.18 | 1.06–3.30 | 0.76–3.59 | 4.301.57–7.04 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.42 | 1.01–3.83 | 0.62–4.22 | 2.67 | 1.12–4.23 | 0.69–4.66 | 5.091.30–8.88 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
28%
34%
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
Total shots
58%
34%
Shots in box
50%
40%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
54%
34%
Fouls
43%
48%
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+