Bundesliga· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 | 1.03–2.95 | 0.77–3.21 | 0.89 | 0.03–1.75 | 0.00–2.00 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 6.29 | 4.44–8.15 | 3.94–8.65 | 2.77 | 1.06–4.47 | 0.59–4.94 | 9.064.53–13.59 |
| Total shots | 16.64 | 12.93–20.34 | 11.90–21.37 | 7.81 | 4.43–11.19 | 3.50–12.12 | 24.4415.40–33.49 |
| Shots in box | 11.40 | 8.88–13.91 | 8.01–14.78 | 6.29 | 3.99–8.59 | 3.19–9.38 | 17.6811.20–24.16 |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 | 2.67–5.84 | 2.14–6.37 | 2.38 | 0.97–3.80 | 0.48–4.28 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 6.56 | 4.36–8.77 | 3.76–9.36 | 3.81 | 1.83–5.79 | 1.30–6.33 | 10.375.06–15.69 |
| Possession % | 57.46 | 51.14–63.78 | 49.55–65.37 | 41.21 | 34.89–47.53 | 33.29–49.12 | — |
| Passes | 467 | 402–533 | 384–550 | 357 | 292–422 | 275–439 | 824659–989 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.82 | 76.60–85.03 | 75.30–86.34 | 71.55 | 67.04–76.05 | 65.71–77.38 | — |
| Fouls | 10.10 | 7.24–12.96 | 6.36–13.84 | 10.97 | 8.02–13.91 | 7.10–14.83 | 21.0713.46–28.67 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.50–2.91 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.39 | 0.23–2.56 | 0.00–2.89 | 3.100.05–6.15 |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 | 0.30–2.41 | 0.03–2.69 | 2.15 | 1.03–3.27 | 0.74–3.56 | 3.510.77–6.25 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 1.76 | 0.34–3.17 | 0.00–3.56 | 3.57 | 2.01–5.12 | 1.58–5.55 | 5.321.53–9.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
63%
21%
16%
Shots on target
85%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
70%
17%
Corners
76%
15%
Fouls
38%
53%
Offsides
45%
24%
32%
Yellow cards
24%
21%
56%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
15%
13%
71%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+