Bundesliga· Regular Season - 10· · Cashpoint-Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.37 | 0.51–2.23 | 0.26–2.48 | 2.590.26–4.92 |
| Shots on target | 4.00 | 2.15–5.86 | 1.65–6.36 | 4.06 | 2.36–5.77 | 1.89–6.24 | 8.073.53–12.60 |
| Total shots | 11.37 | 7.66–15.07 | 6.63–16.10 | 11.13 | 7.75–14.51 | 6.82–15.44 | 22.5013.46–31.54 |
| Shots in box | 7.25 | 4.73–9.77 | 3.87–10.63 | 7.72 | 5.42–10.02 | 4.62–10.82 | 14.978.49–21.45 |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 | 1.65–4.81 | 1.11–5.35 | 2.91 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.01–4.81 | 6.142.12–10.16 |
| Corners | 4.97 | 2.77–7.18 | 2.17–7.77 | 5.02 | 3.04–7.00 | 2.50–7.54 | 9.994.68–15.31 |
| Possession % | 50.29 | 43.98–56.61 | 42.38–58.21 | 49.14 | 42.82–55.46 | 41.22–57.06 | — |
| Passes | 443 | 377–508 | 360–526 | 429 | 364–494 | 347–511 | 872707–1037 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.97 | 66.76–75.19 | 65.45–76.49 | 68.23 | 63.72–72.74 | 62.39–74.07 | — |
| Fouls | 10.15 | 7.29–13.00 | 6.40–13.89 | 11.24 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.11 | 21.3913.79–29.00 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.14–3.25 | 1.82 | 0.66–2.98 | 0.33–3.32 | 3.510.46–6.56 |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 | 0.64–2.75 | 0.37–3.02 | 1.95 | 0.83–3.07 | 0.54–3.36 | 3.650.91–6.38 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.82 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.62 | 2.55 | 0.99–4.10 | 0.56–4.53 | 5.371.58–9.16 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
26%
40%
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
Total shots
48%
44%
Shots in box
40%
50%
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
Corners
43%
44%
Fouls
36%
55%
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
46%
18%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+