Bundesliga· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.61 | 1.64–3.57 | 1.38–3.83 | 0.68 | 0.00–1.54 | 0.00–1.79 | 3.290.96–5.62 |
| Shots on target | 7.42 | 5.57–9.28 | 5.07–9.78 | 2.14 | 0.44–3.85 | 0.00–4.32 | 9.575.04–14.10 |
| Total shots | 19.34 | 15.63–23.04 | 14.60–24.07 | 7.48 | 4.10–10.86 | 3.17–11.79 | 26.8217.78–35.86 |
| Shots in box | 12.35 | 9.84–14.87 | 8.97–15.74 | 4.88 | 2.57–7.18 | 1.78–7.97 | 17.2310.75–23.71 |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 | 2.63–5.80 | 2.10–6.33 | 2.47 | 1.06–3.88 | 0.57–4.37 | 6.692.67–10.71 |
| Corners | 7.76 | 5.55–9.96 | 4.96–10.56 | 3.49 | 1.52–5.47 | 0.98–6.01 | 11.255.94–16.57 |
| Possession % | 64.78 | 58.46–71.10 | 56.87–72.69 | 34.95 | 28.63–41.27 | 27.03–42.87 | — |
| Passes | 536 | 471–601 | 453–619 | 295 | 231–360 | 213–378 | 831666–997 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.60 | 75.38–83.81 | 74.08–85.11 | 66.24 | 61.74–70.75 | 60.41–72.08 | — |
| Fouls | 9.70 | 6.84–12.56 | 5.96–13.44 | 9.77 | 6.82–12.71 | 5.90–13.63 | 19.4711.86–27.07 |
| Offsides | 2.18 | 0.97–3.39 | 0.63–3.74 | 1.45 | 0.29–2.62 | 0.00–2.95 | 3.640.59–6.69 |
| Yellow cards | 1.21 | 0.16–2.27 | 0.00–2.54 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 3.240.51–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 1.99 | 0.57–3.40 | 0.18–3.79 | 3.70 | 2.15–5.26 | 1.72–5.69 | 5.691.90–9.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
79%
14%
Shots on target
95%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
68%
19%
Corners
87%
Fouls
45%
46%
Offsides
54%
20%
25%
Yellow cards
22%
21%
56%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
17%
13%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+