Bundesliga· Regular Season - 13· · Cashpoint-Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 | 0.18–2.11 | 0.00–2.37 | 1.42 | 0.56–2.28 | 0.31–2.52 | 2.560.23–4.89 |
| Shots on target | 4.44 | 2.59–6.30 | 2.09–6.80 | 4.75 | 3.04–6.46 | 2.57–6.93 | 9.194.66–13.72 |
| Total shots | 13.01 | 9.30–16.71 | 8.27–17.74 | 13.65 | 10.28–17.03 | 9.35–17.96 | 26.6617.62–35.71 |
| Shots in box | 7.82 | 5.31–10.34 | 4.44–11.20 | 8.44 | 6.14–10.74 | 5.34–11.54 | 16.279.79–22.75 |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 | 2.08–5.25 | 1.55–5.78 | 3.52 | 2.11–4.94 | 1.62–5.42 | 7.193.17–11.21 |
| Corners | 5.24 | 3.04–7.45 | 2.44–8.04 | 5.27 | 3.29–7.24 | 2.75–7.78 | 10.515.19–15.82 |
| Possession % | 48.90 | 42.58–55.22 | 40.99–56.81 | 49.65 | 43.33–55.96 | 41.73–57.56 | — |
| Passes | 386 | 320–451 | 303–469 | 400 | 335–465 | 318–482 | 786621–951 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.87 | 64.65–73.08 | 63.35–74.38 | 71.93 | 67.42–76.43 | 66.09–77.76 | — |
| Fouls | 10.75 | 7.89–13.60 | 7.00–14.49 | 11.21 | 8.26–14.15 | 7.34–15.07 | 21.9514.35–29.56 |
| Offsides | 1.37 | 0.16–2.58 | 0.00–2.93 | 1.76 | 0.60–2.92 | 0.27–3.26 | 3.130.08–6.18 |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 | 0.79–2.90 | 0.52–3.17 | 2.00 | 0.87–3.12 | 0.58–3.41 | 3.841.10–6.58 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.84 | 1.43–4.26 | 1.04–4.65 | 2.47 | 0.92–4.03 | 0.49–4.46 | 5.321.53–9.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
26%
43%
Shots on target
39%
13%
47%
Total shots
41%
51%
Shots in box
39%
51%
Blocked shots
44%
15%
40%
Corners
43%
44%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
30%
23%
47%
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
47%
18%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+