Bundesliga· Regular Season - 14· · Planet Pure Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 | 0.17–2.09 | 0.00–2.35 | 2.07 | 1.22–2.93 | 0.97–3.18 | 3.210.88–5.54 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.15–5.86 | 1.65–6.36 | 5.75 | 4.05–7.46 | 3.58–7.93 | 9.765.23–14.29 |
| Total shots | 11.46 | 7.76–15.16 | 6.73–16.20 | 15.13 | 11.76–18.51 | 10.83–19.44 | 26.6017.55–35.64 |
| Shots in box | 7.19 | 4.67–9.70 | 3.80–10.57 | 10.67 | 8.37–12.97 | 7.57–13.77 | 17.8511.38–24.33 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.79–4.96 | 1.26–5.49 | 4.01 | 2.60–5.43 | 2.11–5.91 | 7.393.37–11.40 |
| Corners | 3.94 | 1.74–6.15 | 1.14–6.74 | 6.40 | 4.42–8.38 | 3.88–8.92 | 10.345.02–15.66 |
| Possession % | 35.31 | 28.99–41.63 | 27.40–43.22 | 65.11 | 58.79–71.43 | 57.20–73.03 | — |
| Passes | 343 | 277–408 | 260–426 | 594 | 530–659 | 512–676 | 937772–1102 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.40 | 62.18–70.61 | 60.88–71.91 | 78.22 | 73.71–82.73 | 72.38–84.06 | — |
| Fouls | 11.88 | 9.02–14.74 | 8.14–15.62 | 9.46 | 6.51–12.40 | 5.59–13.32 | 21.3413.73–28.94 |
| Offsides | 1.77 | 0.56–2.98 | 0.22–3.33 | 2.26 | 1.10–3.42 | 0.76–3.76 | 4.030.98–7.08 |
| Yellow cards | 2.14 | 1.08–3.19 | 0.81–3.47 | 1.60 | 0.48–2.72 | 0.19–3.01 | 3.731.00–6.47 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 4.12 | 2.71–5.53 | 2.32–5.92 | 2.37 | 0.81–3.92 | 0.38–4.35 | 6.492.70–10.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
21%
59%
Shots on target
23%
65%
Total shots
21%
73%
Shots in box
17%
76%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
52%
Corners
18%
73%
Fouls
66%
26%
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
Yellow cards
50%
21%
29%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
69%
18%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+