Bundesliga· Regular Season - 17· · Planet Pure Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 | 0.15–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 2.06 | 1.20–2.92 | 0.95–3.16 | 3.170.84–5.50 |
| Shots on target | 3.36 | 1.50–5.21 | 1.00–5.71 | 6.40 | 4.69–8.10 | 4.22–8.57 | 9.755.22–14.28 |
| Total shots | 9.73 | 6.03–13.44 | 5.00–14.47 | 15.93 | 12.55–19.31 | 11.62–20.24 | 25.6716.62–34.71 |
| Shots in box | 5.99 | 3.47–8.50 | 2.61–9.37 | 10.17 | 7.87–12.47 | 7.07–13.27 | 16.169.68–22.64 |
| Blocked shots | 3.04 | 1.46–4.63 | 0.92–5.16 | 3.59 | 2.18–5.01 | 1.69–5.50 | 6.642.62–10.66 |
| Corners | 3.81 | 1.60–6.01 | 1.01–6.61 | 6.34 | 4.36–8.32 | 3.82–8.85 | 10.144.83–15.46 |
| Possession % | 38.53 | 32.21–44.85 | 30.62–46.45 | 61.28 | 54.96–67.60 | 53.37–69.20 | — |
| Passes | 291 | 226–356 | 208–374 | 483 | 418–547 | 401–565 | 774609–939 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.45 | 60.24–68.67 | 58.94–69.97 | 76.25 | 71.74–80.76 | 70.41–82.09 | — |
| Fouls | 11.82 | 8.96–14.67 | 8.07–15.56 | 9.87 | 6.92–12.81 | 6.00–13.73 | 21.6814.08–29.29 |
| Offsides | 1.58 | 0.37–2.79 | 0.03–3.14 | 2.28 | 1.11–3.44 | 0.78–3.77 | 3.860.81–6.91 |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 | 0.86–2.97 | 0.58–3.24 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 3.650.91–6.39 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 4.06 | 2.65–5.48 | 2.26–5.87 | 2.43 | 0.87–3.98 | 0.44–4.41 | 6.492.70–10.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
21%
59%
Shots on target
79%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
Corners
17%
74%
Fouls
62%
30%
Offsides
27%
20%
53%
Yellow cards
43%
22%
36%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
67%
13%
20%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+