Bundesliga· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 | 0.57–2.49 | 0.31–2.75 | 1.03 | 0.17–1.89 | 0.00–2.14 | 2.560.23–4.89 |
| Shots on target | 4.70 | 2.84–6.55 | 2.34–7.05 | 3.51 | 1.80–5.22 | 1.33–5.69 | 8.213.68–12.74 |
| Total shots | 13.36 | 9.66–17.07 | 8.63–18.10 | 9.76 | 6.38–13.14 | 5.45–14.07 | 23.1214.08–32.17 |
| Shots in box | 9.13 | 6.61–11.64 | 5.75–12.51 | 6.78 | 4.48–9.08 | 3.68–9.88 | 15.919.43–22.39 |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 | 2.07–5.24 | 1.54–5.78 | 2.71 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.81–4.61 | 6.362.34–10.38 |
| Corners | 5.01 | 2.81–7.22 | 2.21–7.81 | 4.11 | 2.13–6.08 | 1.59–6.62 | 9.123.80–14.43 |
| Possession % | 52.33 | 46.02–58.65 | 44.42–60.25 | 47.31 | 40.99–53.62 | 39.39–55.22 | — |
| Passes | 466 | 401–531 | 383–549 | 417 | 352–481 | 335–499 | 883718–1048 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.14 | 66.92–75.35 | 65.62–76.66 | 71.87 | 67.37–76.38 | 66.03–77.71 | — |
| Fouls | 10.21 | 7.36–13.07 | 6.47–13.96 | 10.69 | 7.75–13.64 | 6.83–14.56 | 20.9113.30–28.51 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.57 | 0.40–2.73 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.350.30–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 | 0.45–2.56 | 0.17–2.83 | 1.78 | 0.66–2.90 | 0.37–3.19 | 3.280.54–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.16 | 0.75–3.57 | 0.36–3.96 | 2.95 | 1.39–4.50 | 0.96–4.93 | 5.111.32–8.90 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
26%
26%
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
Total shots
74%
20%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
Corners
55%
32%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+