Bundesliga· Regular Season - 20· · Cashpoint-Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 | 0.06–1.98 | 0.00–2.24 | 1.96 | 1.10–2.82 | 0.86–3.07 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 3.58 | 1.73–5.44 | 1.23–5.94 | 5.71 | 4.00–7.41 | 3.53–7.88 | 9.294.76–13.82 |
| Total shots | 11.01 | 7.31–14.71 | 6.27–15.74 | 15.78 | 12.40–19.16 | 11.47–20.09 | 26.7917.74–35.83 |
| Shots in box | 6.69 | 4.17–9.20 | 3.31–10.07 | 10.59 | 8.29–12.89 | 7.49–13.69 | 17.2810.80–23.76 |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 | 1.37–4.54 | 0.84–5.07 | 4.12 | 2.70–5.53 | 2.22–6.02 | 7.073.05–11.09 |
| Corners | 4.24 | 2.03–6.44 | 1.44–7.04 | 5.65 | 3.67–7.63 | 3.13–8.16 | 9.894.57–15.20 |
| Possession % | 46.32 | 40.00–52.64 | 38.41–54.23 | 53.10 | 46.78–59.42 | 45.18–61.02 | — |
| Passes | 394 | 329–460 | 311–477 | 441 | 376–505 | 359–523 | 835670–1000 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.07 | 65.85–74.28 | 64.55–75.58 | 77.60 | 73.09–82.11 | 71.76–83.44 | — |
| Fouls | 10.38 | 7.52–13.24 | 6.64–14.12 | 10.30 | 7.36–13.25 | 6.44–14.17 | 20.6913.08–28.29 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.20–3.31 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.97 | 0.31–3.31 | 3.570.52–6.62 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.73 | 0.34–3.00 | 1.48 | 0.36–2.60 | 0.07–2.89 | 3.150.41–5.88 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.62 | 2.20–5.03 | 1.81–5.42 | 2.33 | 0.78–3.88 | 0.34–4.32 | 5.952.16–9.73 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
19%
22%
59%
Shots on target
19%
70%
Total shots
15%
80%
Shots in box
14%
79%
Blocked shots
26%
14%
60%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
42%
24%
34%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
62%
15%
23%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+