Bundesliga· Regular Season - 22· · Raiffeisen Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.82 | 1.85–3.78 | 1.59–4.04 | 0.78 | 0.00–1.64 | 0.00–1.89 | 3.601.27–5.93 |
| Shots on target | 7.15 | 5.29–9.01 | 4.80–9.51 | 2.87 | 1.17–4.58 | 0.70–5.05 | 10.025.49–14.55 |
| Total shots | 19.50 | 15.79–23.20 | 14.76–24.23 | 8.90 | 5.53–12.28 | 4.59–13.21 | 28.4019.36–37.44 |
| Shots in box | 13.76 | 11.24–16.27 | 10.37–17.14 | 5.17 | 2.87–7.47 | 2.07–8.27 | 18.9312.45–25.41 |
| Blocked shots | 5.23 | 3.64–6.81 | 3.11–7.35 | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.48–4.28 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 6.93 | 4.73–9.14 | 4.13–9.73 | 3.31 | 1.33–5.29 | 0.79–5.82 | 10.244.92–15.56 |
| Possession % | 61.80 | 55.48–68.12 | 53.89–69.72 | 38.52 | 32.21–44.84 | 30.61–46.44 | — |
| Passes | 551 | 485–616 | 468–634 | 323 | 259–388 | 241–405 | 874709–1039 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.32 | 76.11–84.54 | 74.81–85.84 | 68.30 | 63.79–72.81 | 62.46–74.14 | — |
| Fouls | 8.78 | 5.93–11.64 | 5.04–12.53 | 8.85 | 5.91–11.80 | 4.99–12.72 | 17.6410.03–25.24 |
| Offsides | 2.03 | 0.82–3.24 | 0.47–3.58 | 1.44 | 0.28–2.60 | 0.00–2.93 | 3.460.42–6.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.11 | 0.06–2.17 | 0.00–2.44 | 1.66 | 0.54–2.78 | 0.25–3.07 | 2.770.03–5.51 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.04 | 0.63–3.45 | 0.24–3.84 | 4.16 | 2.60–5.71 | 2.17–6.14 | 6.202.41–9.98 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
79%
13%
Shots on target
89%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
81%
Corners
84%
Fouls
45%
46%
Offsides
51%
21%
27%
Yellow cards
25%
24%
50%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
14%
74%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+