Championship· Regular Season - 7· · Bramall Lane· referee: R. Jones
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 0.41–2.33 | 0.14–2.59 | 0.00 | 1.51 | 0.65–2.37 | 0.41–2.62 | 1.00 | 2.88act. 1.00 |
| Shots on target | 4.17 | 2.32–6.03 | 1.82–6.53 | 2.00 | 4.46 | 2.75–6.17 | 2.28–6.63 | 3.00 | 8.63act. 5.00 |
| Total shots | 12.40 | 8.70–16.10 | 7.67–17.13 | 6.00 | 12.65 | 9.27–16.03 | 8.34–16.96 | 17.00 | 25.05act. 23.00 |
| Shots in box | 8.88 | 6.37–11.40 | 5.50–12.26 | 4.00 | 8.69 | 6.39–10.99 | 5.59–11.79 | 16.00 | 17.57act. 20.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.79–4.96 | 1.26–5.49 | 1.00 | 3.59 | 2.17–5.00 | 1.69–5.49 | 5.00 | 6.96act. 6.00 |
| Corners | 5.06 | 2.85–7.26 | 2.26–7.86 | 0.00 | 5.03 | 3.05–7.01 | 2.52–7.55 | 9.00 | 10.09act. 9.00 |
| Possession % | 46.60 | 40.28–52.92 | 38.68–54.51 | 37.00 | 54.41 | 48.09–60.73 | 46.49–62.33 | 63.00 | — |
| Passes | 384 | 319–449 | 301–467 | 287 | 425 | 361–490 | 343–508 | 495 | 809act. 782 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.54 | 66.32–74.75 | 65.02–76.05 | — | 76.61 | 72.10–81.11 | 70.77–82.44 | — | — |
| Fouls | 11.76 | 8.91–14.62 | 8.02–15.50 | 12.00 | 11.32 | 8.37–14.26 | 7.45–15.18 | 15.00 | 23.08act. 27.00 |
| Offsides | 2.63 | 1.42–3.83 | 1.07–4.18 | 5.00 | 1.78 | 0.61–2.94 | 0.28–3.27 | 2.00 | 4.40act. 7.00 |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 | 1.16–3.28 | 0.89–3.55 | 2.00 | 2.23 | 1.11–3.35 | 0.82–3.64 | 1.00 | 4.45act. 3.00 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16act. 0.00 |
| GK saves | 2.58 | 1.17–4.00 | 0.78–4.39 | 2.00 | 2.82 | 1.26–4.37 | 0.83–4.80 | 2.00 | 5.40act. 4.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
25%
41%
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
Total shots
44%
48%
Shots in box
47%
43%
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
Corners
44%
43%
Fouls
50%
42%
Offsides
56%
18%
26%
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+