Championship· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.27–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.18 | 0.32–2.04 | 0.08–2.29 | 2.410.08–4.74 |
| Shots on target | 3.99 | 2.13–5.85 | 1.64–6.35 | 3.84 | 2.13–5.54 | 1.66–6.01 | 7.833.30–12.36 |
| Total shots | 12.18 | 8.47–15.88 | 7.44–16.91 | 11.19 | 7.82–14.57 | 6.89–15.50 | 23.3714.33–32.42 |
| Shots in box | 8.15 | 5.63–10.67 | 4.77–11.53 | 7.70 | 5.40–10.01 | 4.61–10.80 | 15.869.38–22.33 |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 | 2.06–5.23 | 1.53–5.76 | 3.18 | 1.76–4.59 | 1.27–5.08 | 6.822.80–10.84 |
| Corners | 5.48 | 3.27–7.68 | 2.68–8.28 | 4.62 | 2.64–6.59 | 2.10–7.13 | 10.094.78–15.41 |
| Possession % | 46.32 | 40.00–52.64 | 38.41–54.24 | 52.24 | 45.93–58.56 | 44.33–60.16 | — |
| Passes | 404 | 338–469 | 321–486 | 438 | 373–502 | 355–520 | 841676–1006 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.24 | 62.02–70.45 | 60.72–71.76 | 67.82 | 63.32–72.33 | 61.99–73.66 | — |
| Fouls | 11.31 | 8.45–14.17 | 7.57–15.05 | 10.18 | 7.23–13.12 | 6.31–14.04 | 21.4813.88–29.09 |
| Offsides | 1.84 | 0.63–3.05 | 0.29–3.39 | 1.62 | 0.46–2.78 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.460.41–6.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.15 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.510.77–6.25 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.78 | 1.36–4.19 | 0.98–4.58 | 2.56 | 1.00–4.11 | 0.57–4.54 | 5.341.55–9.12 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
28%
35%
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
Total shots
54%
38%
Shots in box
49%
41%
Blocked shots
49%
15%
35%
Corners
54%
33%
Fouls
55%
36%
Offsides
43%
22%
34%
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
45%
18%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+