Championship· Regular Season - 9· · Riverside Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 | 0.99–2.91 | 0.73–3.17 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 3.010.68–5.34 |
| Shots on target | 5.62 | 3.76–7.48 | 3.27–7.98 | 3.67 | 1.96–5.37 | 1.49–5.84 | 9.294.76–13.82 |
| Total shots | 15.47 | 11.77–19.18 | 10.74–20.21 | 10.86 | 7.48–14.24 | 6.55–15.17 | 26.3317.29–35.38 |
| Shots in box | 11.05 | 8.53–13.56 | 7.67–14.43 | 6.95 | 4.65–9.25 | 3.85–10.05 | 17.9911.52–24.47 |
| Blocked shots | 4.74 | 3.15–6.32 | 2.62–6.85 | 2.82 | 1.41–4.24 | 0.92–4.72 | 7.563.54–11.58 |
| Corners | 5.90 | 3.69–8.10 | 3.10–8.70 | 4.27 | 2.29–6.25 | 1.75–6.79 | 10.174.85–15.49 |
| Possession % | 59.34 | 53.02–65.65 | 51.42–67.25 | 40.90 | 34.58–47.22 | 32.98–48.81 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–580 | 431–597 | 353 | 288–417 | 271–435 | 867702–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.97 | 74.75–83.18 | 73.45–84.49 | 71.13 | 66.62–75.63 | 65.29–76.96 | — |
| Fouls | 10.84 | 7.99–13.70 | 7.10–14.59 | 10.95 | 8.00–13.89 | 7.08–14.81 | 21.7914.19–29.40 |
| Offsides | 2.59 | 1.38–3.80 | 1.03–4.14 | 1.61 | 0.45–2.77 | 0.11–3.10 | 4.201.15–7.24 |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 | 0.62–2.73 | 0.35–3.00 | 2.38 | 1.26–3.50 | 0.97–3.79 | 4.051.32–6.79 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.72 | 1.31–4.14 | 0.92–4.53 | 3.15 | 1.60–4.70 | 1.16–5.13 | 5.872.08–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
58%
22%
20%
Shots on target
68%
21%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
80%
14%
Blocked shots
70%
19%
Corners
64%
25%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
Yellow cards
27%
19%
53%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
35%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+