Championship· Regular Season - 11· · The Den· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.64–2.57 | 0.38–2.83 | 0.92 | 0.06–1.78 | 0.00–2.03 | 2.530.20–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 4.85 | 2.99–6.70 | 2.49–7.20 | 3.44 | 1.73–5.15 | 1.26–5.62 | 8.293.76–12.82 |
| Total shots | 14.32 | 10.62–18.02 | 9.58–19.05 | 10.40 | 7.02–13.78 | 6.09–14.71 | 24.7215.68–33.77 |
| Shots in box | 10.33 | 7.81–12.84 | 6.95–13.71 | 6.84 | 4.54–9.15 | 3.75–9.94 | 17.1710.69–23.65 |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 | 2.53–5.69 | 1.99–6.23 | 3.07 | 1.66–4.49 | 1.17–4.97 | 7.183.16–11.20 |
| Corners | 6.23 | 4.02–8.43 | 3.43–9.03 | 4.28 | 2.31–6.26 | 1.77–6.80 | 10.515.19–15.83 |
| Possession % | 52.58 | 46.27–58.90 | 44.67–60.50 | 47.15 | 40.83–53.47 | 39.24–55.07 | — |
| Passes | 402 | 336–467 | 319–485 | 341 | 276–405 | 259–423 | 742577–908 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.30 | 62.08–70.51 | 60.78–71.81 | 66.27 | 61.76–70.77 | 60.43–72.10 | — |
| Fouls | 11.86 | 9.01–14.72 | 8.12–15.61 | 12.48 | 9.53–15.43 | 8.62–16.34 | 24.3416.74–31.95 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.38–2.80 | 0.04–3.14 | 1.40 | 0.24–2.56 | 0.00–2.90 | 2.990.00–6.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.76 | 2.07 | 0.95–3.19 | 0.66–3.48 | 3.500.76–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.37 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.57–4.18 | 2.77 | 1.22–4.33 | 0.79–4.76 | 5.141.36–8.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
25%
22%
Shots on target
62%
25%
Total shots
75%
19%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
Yellow cards
26%
21%
52%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+