Championship· Regular Season - 12· · Fratton Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 0.51–2.44 | 0.25–2.70 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.04–2.26 | 2.630.30–4.96 |
| Shots on target | 4.37 | 2.52–6.23 | 2.02–6.73 | 3.73 | 2.02–5.44 | 1.55–5.90 | 8.103.57–12.63 |
| Total shots | 13.28 | 9.58–16.98 | 8.55–18.01 | 12.03 | 8.65–15.41 | 7.72–16.34 | 25.3116.27–34.35 |
| Shots in box | 8.64 | 6.13–11.16 | 5.26–12.02 | 7.84 | 5.54–10.14 | 4.75–10.94 | 16.4910.01–22.96 |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 | 2.98–6.15 | 2.45–6.69 | 3.44 | 2.03–4.86 | 1.54–5.34 | 8.013.99–12.03 |
| Corners | 5.70 | 3.50–7.91 | 2.90–8.50 | 4.35 | 2.38–6.33 | 1.84–6.87 | 10.064.74–15.37 |
| Possession % | 56.01 | 49.70–62.33 | 48.10–63.93 | 44.95 | 38.63–51.27 | 37.03–52.86 | — |
| Passes | 453 | 387–518 | 370–535 | 333 | 268–398 | 251–415 | 785620–951 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.51 | 71.30–79.73 | 70.00–81.03 | 66.29 | 61.78–70.79 | 60.45–72.12 | — |
| Fouls | 10.13 | 7.27–12.99 | 6.39–13.87 | 12.87 | 9.92–15.81 | 9.01–16.73 | 23.0015.39–30.61 |
| Offsides | 1.33 | 0.12–2.54 | 0.00–2.89 | 2.42 | 1.26–3.58 | 0.92–3.91 | 3.750.71–6.80 |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.05–2.71 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.350.61–6.09 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.02–3.85 | 0.63–4.24 | 2.47 | 0.92–4.02 | 0.48–4.46 | 4.901.12–8.69 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
26%
29%
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
Total shots
56%
36%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
59%
13%
28%
Corners
60%
28%
Fouls
25%
68%
Offsides
20%
19%
61%
Yellow cards
27%
22%
51%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
40%
19%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+