Championship· Regular Season - 12· · Deepdale· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 | 0.17–2.09 | 0.00–2.35 | 1.38 | 0.52–2.24 | 0.27–2.48 | 2.510.18–4.84 |
| Shots on target | 3.89 | 2.04–5.75 | 1.54–6.25 | 4.11 | 2.41–5.82 | 1.94–6.29 | 8.013.48–12.54 |
| Total shots | 11.36 | 7.65–15.06 | 6.62–16.09 | 11.69 | 8.31–15.07 | 7.38–16.00 | 23.0514.01–32.09 |
| Shots in box | 7.44 | 4.93–9.96 | 4.06–10.83 | 8.15 | 5.85–10.45 | 5.05–11.25 | 15.609.12–22.08 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.99–5.16 | 1.46–5.69 | 3.27 | 1.85–4.68 | 1.37–5.17 | 6.842.82–10.86 |
| Corners | 4.71 | 2.51–6.92 | 1.91–7.51 | 5.04 | 3.06–7.02 | 2.53–7.56 | 9.764.44–15.07 |
| Possession % | 39.03 | 32.71–45.35 | 31.11–46.94 | 60.59 | 54.27–66.91 | 52.68–68.51 | — |
| Passes | 331 | 265–396 | 248–414 | 540 | 476–605 | 458–622 | 871706–1036 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.28 | 61.06–69.49 | 59.76–70.79 | 72.95 | 68.44–77.45 | 67.11–78.78 | — |
| Fouls | 11.54 | 8.69–14.40 | 7.80–15.28 | 11.08 | 8.13–14.02 | 7.22–14.94 | 22.6215.02–30.23 |
| Offsides | 1.91 | 0.70–3.12 | 0.36–3.47 | 2.40 | 1.23–3.56 | 0.90–3.89 | 4.311.26–7.36 |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 | 1.09–3.20 | 0.82–3.47 | 1.70 | 0.58–2.82 | 0.29–3.11 | 3.851.11–6.59 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.94 | 1.52–4.35 | 1.14–4.74 | 2.48 | 0.93–4.03 | 0.49–4.47 | 5.421.63–9.21 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
27%
43%
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
Total shots
43%
49%
Shots in box
38%
52%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
39%
48%
Fouls
50%
42%
Offsides
31%
19%
49%
Yellow cards
48%
21%
31%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+