Championship· Regular Season - 14· · Deepdale· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 | 0.35–2.27 | 0.09–2.53 | 1.14 | 0.28–2.00 | 0.03–2.24 | 2.450.12–4.78 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.09–6.80 | 2.59–7.30 | 3.12 | 1.42–4.83 | 0.95–5.30 | 8.073.54–12.60 |
| Total shots | 14.84 | 11.13–18.54 | 10.10–19.57 | 9.43 | 6.05–12.81 | 5.12–13.74 | 24.2715.23–33.31 |
| Shots in box | 10.57 | 8.05–13.08 | 7.19–13.95 | 6.84 | 4.54–9.14 | 3.74–9.93 | 17.4010.92–23.88 |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 | 3.04–6.21 | 2.51–6.74 | 2.85 | 1.43–4.26 | 0.95–4.75 | 7.473.45–11.49 |
| Corners | 5.98 | 3.77–8.18 | 3.18–8.78 | 4.51 | 2.53–6.49 | 1.99–7.02 | 10.485.17–15.80 |
| Possession % | 47.01 | 40.69–53.32 | 39.09–54.92 | 51.49 | 45.17–57.81 | 43.57–59.40 | — |
| Passes | 365 | 300–430 | 282–448 | 427 | 362–492 | 345–509 | 792627–957 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.26 | 61.04–69.47 | 59.74–70.77 | 67.39 | 62.88–71.89 | 61.55–73.23 | — |
| Fouls | 11.31 | 8.45–14.17 | 7.57–15.05 | 11.16 | 8.22–14.11 | 7.30–15.03 | 22.4714.87–30.08 |
| Offsides | 1.89 | 0.68–3.10 | 0.33–3.44 | 2.69 | 1.53–3.85 | 1.19–4.18 | 4.581.53–7.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 | 0.88–3.00 | 0.61–3.27 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 3.821.08–6.55 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.50 | 1.08–3.91 | 0.69–4.30 | 2.97 | 1.41–4.52 | 0.98–4.95 | 5.461.67–9.25 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
27%
32%
Shots on target
68%
20%
Total shots
84%
Shots in box
78%
15%
Blocked shots
68%
20%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
27%
18%
55%
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+