Championship· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 0.43–2.36 | 0.17–2.62 | 1.24 | 0.38–2.10 | 0.14–2.35 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.61 | 2.75–6.47 | 2.25–6.96 | 4.48 | 2.77–6.19 | 2.30–6.65 | 9.094.56–13.62 |
| Total shots | 13.36 | 9.65–17.06 | 8.62–18.09 | 13.46 | 10.08–16.84 | 9.15–17.77 | 26.8217.77–35.86 |
| Shots in box | 9.88 | 7.36–12.40 | 6.50–13.26 | 7.46 | 5.16–9.76 | 4.36–10.56 | 17.3410.86–23.82 |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 | 1.88–5.05 | 1.35–5.59 | 3.26 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.35–5.16 | 6.722.70–10.74 |
| Corners | 5.28 | 3.07–7.48 | 2.48–8.08 | 4.67 | 2.69–6.64 | 2.15–7.18 | 9.944.63–15.26 |
| Possession % | 50.65 | 44.33–56.96 | 42.73–58.56 | 49.05 | 42.73–55.37 | 41.14–56.97 | — |
| Passes | 460 | 395–525 | 377–543 | 458 | 394–523 | 376–541 | 918753–1084 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.91 | 63.69–72.12 | 62.39–73.42 | 72.22 | 67.71–76.72 | 66.38–78.05 | — |
| Fouls | 9.50 | 6.64–12.35 | 5.75–13.24 | 11.24 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.11 | 20.7413.14–28.35 |
| Offsides | 2.19 | 0.98–3.40 | 0.63–3.74 | 1.27 | 0.11–2.43 | 0.00–2.76 | 3.460.41–6.50 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.64–2.75 | 0.37–3.02 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.590.85–6.32 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.93 | 1.51–4.34 | 1.12–4.73 | 2.85 | 1.30–4.41 | 0.87–4.84 | 5.781.99–9.57 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
26%
33%
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
Total shots
45%
47%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+