Championship· Regular Season - 15· · The Valley· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 0.28–2.20 | 0.02–2.46 | 0.98 | 0.12–1.84 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.220.00–4.55 |
| Shots on target | 4.65 | 2.80–6.51 | 2.30–7.01 | 2.44 | 0.73–4.15 | 0.27–4.62 | 7.092.56–11.63 |
| Total shots | 14.09 | 10.39–17.80 | 9.36–18.83 | 9.04 | 5.66–12.42 | 4.73–13.35 | 23.1314.09–32.18 |
| Shots in box | 9.40 | 6.88–11.91 | 6.02–12.78 | 6.24 | 3.94–8.54 | 3.14–9.34 | 15.649.16–22.12 |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 | 2.68–5.85 | 2.15–6.38 | 3.13 | 1.72–4.55 | 1.23–5.03 | 7.403.38–11.41 |
| Corners | 5.88 | 3.68–8.09 | 3.08–8.68 | 4.44 | 2.47–6.42 | 1.93–6.96 | 10.335.01–15.64 |
| Possession % | 47.62 | 41.30–53.94 | 39.70–55.53 | 51.09 | 44.77–57.41 | 43.18–59.01 | — |
| Passes | 389 | 323–454 | 306–471 | 423 | 358–487 | 341–505 | 811646–977 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.22 | 63.00–71.43 | 61.70–72.73 | 68.71 | 64.21–73.22 | 62.88–74.55 | — |
| Fouls | 10.99 | 8.13–13.85 | 7.25–14.73 | 11.83 | 8.89–14.78 | 7.97–15.69 | 22.8215.22–30.43 |
| Offsides | 2.11 | 0.90–3.32 | 0.56–3.67 | 1.60 | 0.43–2.76 | 0.10–3.09 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 | 0.43–2.54 | 0.16–2.82 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.400.67–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.09 | 0.68–3.51 | 0.29–3.90 | 2.54 | 0.99–4.10 | 0.56–4.53 | 4.640.85–8.43 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
29%
29%
Shots on target
74%
15%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
33%
19%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+