Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 0.52–2.44 | 0.26–2.70 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.21 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.96 | 3.10–6.81 | 2.60–7.31 | 3.98 | 2.27–5.69 | 1.80–6.16 | 8.944.41–13.47 |
| Total shots | 12.71 | 9.01–16.42 | 7.98–17.45 | 11.97 | 8.59–15.35 | 7.66–16.28 | 24.6815.64–33.73 |
| Shots in box | 8.32 | 5.80–10.84 | 4.94–11.70 | 7.55 | 5.25–9.86 | 4.46–10.65 | 15.879.40–22.35 |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 | 2.30–5.46 | 1.76–6.00 | 3.22 | 1.80–4.63 | 1.32–5.12 | 7.103.08–11.12 |
| Corners | 4.87 | 2.67–7.08 | 2.07–7.67 | 4.06 | 2.08–6.04 | 1.54–6.57 | 8.933.62–14.25 |
| Possession % | 53.02 | 46.70–59.33 | 45.10–60.93 | 46.02 | 39.70–52.33 | 38.10–53.93 | — |
| Passes | 528 | 463–593 | 445–611 | 467 | 402–532 | 385–549 | 995830–1160 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.26 | 75.04–83.47 | 73.74–84.77 | 74.10 | 69.59–78.60 | 68.26–79.93 | — |
| Fouls | 10.32 | 7.46–13.18 | 6.58–14.06 | 11.63 | 8.68–14.57 | 7.77–15.49 | 21.9514.35–29.56 |
| Offsides | 2.07 | 0.86–3.28 | 0.52–3.63 | 2.08 | 0.91–3.24 | 0.58–3.57 | 4.151.10–7.20 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.48–3.14 | 2.21 | 1.09–3.33 | 0.80–3.62 | 4.021.29–6.76 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.67 | 1.26–4.08 | 0.87–4.47 | 2.68 | 1.13–4.24 | 0.70–4.67 | 5.351.56–9.14 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
46%
26%
28%
Shots on target
56%
31%
Total shots
52%
40%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
54%
13%
33%
Fouls
35%
57%
Offsides
40%
20%
40%
Yellow cards
32%
20%
47%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+