Championship· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 | 0.68–2.61 | 0.42–2.87 | 0.87 | 0.01–1.73 | 0.00–1.98 | 2.520.19–4.84 |
| Shots on target | 5.16 | 3.30–7.01 | 2.80–7.51 | 2.68 | 0.97–4.39 | 0.51–4.86 | 7.843.31–12.37 |
| Total shots | 15.29 | 11.58–18.99 | 10.55–20.02 | 9.32 | 5.94–12.69 | 5.01–13.62 | 24.6015.56–33.64 |
| Shots in box | 10.10 | 7.58–12.62 | 6.72–13.48 | 6.26 | 3.96–8.56 | 3.16–9.36 | 16.369.88–22.84 |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 | 2.82–5.99 | 2.28–6.52 | 2.68 | 1.27–4.09 | 0.78–4.58 | 7.083.06–11.10 |
| Corners | 6.63 | 4.42–8.83 | 3.83–9.43 | 3.93 | 1.96–5.91 | 1.42–6.45 | 10.565.25–15.88 |
| Possession % | 61.69 | 55.37–68.00 | 53.77–69.60 | 38.82 | 32.50–45.14 | 30.91–46.74 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–579 | 431–597 | 304 | 240–369 | 222–386 | 818653–983 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.96 | 70.75–79.18 | 69.45–80.48 | 64.73 | 60.22–69.24 | 58.89–70.57 | — |
| Fouls | 10.80 | 7.94–13.66 | 7.06–14.54 | 12.40 | 9.46–15.35 | 8.54–16.27 | 23.2015.60–30.81 |
| Offsides | 1.50 | 0.29–2.71 | 0.00–3.05 | 2.39 | 1.23–3.55 | 0.90–3.89 | 3.890.84–6.94 |
| Yellow cards | 1.30 | 0.24–2.35 | 0.00–2.63 | 2.11 | 0.99–3.23 | 0.70–3.52 | 3.410.67–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.10 | 0.69–3.52 | 0.30–3.91 | 2.75 | 1.19–4.30 | 0.76–4.73 | 4.851.06–8.64 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
25%
20%
Shots on target
76%
14%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
80%
14%
Blocked shots
68%
20%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
23%
19%
57%
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
30%
18%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+