Championship· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 | 0.30–2.22 | 0.04–2.48 | 1.10 | 0.25–1.96 | 0.00–2.21 | 2.360.03–4.69 |
| Shots on target | 4.54 | 2.69–6.40 | 2.19–6.90 | 3.57 | 1.86–5.28 | 1.39–5.74 | 8.113.58–12.64 |
| Total shots | 14.19 | 10.49–17.90 | 9.46–18.93 | 11.05 | 7.67–14.43 | 6.74–15.36 | 25.2416.20–34.29 |
| Shots in box | 9.17 | 6.65–11.68 | 5.79–12.55 | 7.97 | 5.67–10.27 | 4.88–11.07 | 17.1410.66–23.62 |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 | 2.54–5.71 | 2.01–6.24 | 3.40 | 1.98–4.81 | 1.49–5.30 | 7.523.50–11.54 |
| Corners | 5.66 | 3.46–7.87 | 2.86–8.46 | 4.63 | 2.65–6.60 | 2.11–7.14 | 10.294.97–15.60 |
| Possession % | 55.23 | 48.91–61.55 | 47.31–63.14 | 44.84 | 38.52–51.16 | 36.93–52.76 | — |
| Passes | 438 | 372–503 | 355–521 | 352 | 288–417 | 270–434 | 790625–955 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.81 | 64.60–73.03 | 63.30–74.33 | 63.88 | 59.37–68.39 | 58.04–69.72 | — |
| Fouls | 10.50 | 7.64–13.35 | 6.76–14.24 | 12.71 | 9.76–15.65 | 8.85–16.57 | 23.2115.60–30.81 |
| Offsides | 1.48 | 0.27–2.69 | 0.00–3.03 | 2.11 | 0.95–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.590.54–6.64 |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 | 0.52–2.63 | 0.24–2.90 | 2.17 | 1.05–3.29 | 0.76–3.58 | 3.741.00–6.48 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.22 | 0.81–3.64 | 0.42–4.03 | 2.99 | 1.43–4.54 | 1.00–4.97 | 5.211.42–9.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
28%
32%
Shots on target
56%
13%
30%
Total shots
70%
23%
Shots in box
57%
34%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
29%
64%
Offsides
27%
21%
52%
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+