Championship· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 | 0.22–2.15 | 0.00–2.41 | 1.34 | 0.48–2.20 | 0.24–2.45 | 2.530.20–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 4.18 | 2.32–6.04 | 1.82–6.53 | 4.54 | 2.83–6.24 | 2.36–6.71 | 8.724.19–13.25 |
| Total shots | 12.34 | 8.63–16.04 | 7.60–17.07 | 14.24 | 10.86–17.62 | 9.93–18.55 | 26.5717.53–35.62 |
| Shots in box | 8.12 | 5.61–10.64 | 4.74–11.50 | 8.66 | 6.36–10.96 | 5.56–11.76 | 16.7810.31–23.26 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.78–4.95 | 1.25–5.49 | 3.68 | 2.27–5.10 | 1.78–5.59 | 7.053.03–11.07 |
| Corners | 4.56 | 2.36–6.77 | 1.76–7.36 | 5.26 | 3.28–7.24 | 2.75–7.78 | 9.834.51–15.14 |
| Possession % | 46.24 | 39.92–52.56 | 38.32–54.15 | 53.35 | 47.03–59.67 | 45.43–61.27 | — |
| Passes | 393 | 327–458 | 310–476 | 444 | 379–508 | 362–526 | 836671–1001 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.28 | 65.06–73.49 | 63.76–74.80 | 74.85 | 70.34–79.35 | 69.01–80.68 | — |
| Fouls | 10.95 | 8.09–13.81 | 7.21–14.69 | 10.33 | 7.38–13.27 | 6.46–14.19 | 21.2813.67–28.88 |
| Offsides | 2.40 | 1.19–3.60 | 0.84–3.95 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.49 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.720.67–6.77 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.11 | 1.93 | 0.81–3.05 | 0.52–3.34 | 3.700.97–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.81 | 1.39–4.22 | 1.00–4.61 | 2.35 | 0.79–3.90 | 0.36–4.33 | 5.151.36–8.94 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
27%
40%
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
Total shots
32%
61%
Shots in box
40%
50%
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
Corners
35%
52%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
61%
19%
20%
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
49%
18%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+