Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 0.27–2.20 | 0.01–2.46 | 1.44 | 0.58–2.30 | 0.33–2.55 | 2.680.35–5.01 |
| Shots on target | 4.70 | 2.84–6.56 | 2.34–7.05 | 4.80 | 3.09–6.51 | 2.62–6.98 | 9.504.97–14.03 |
| Total shots | 13.24 | 9.53–16.94 | 8.50–17.97 | 14.27 | 10.89–17.65 | 9.96–18.58 | 27.5118.46–36.55 |
| Shots in box | 9.00 | 6.48–11.52 | 5.62–12.38 | 9.07 | 6.77–11.38 | 5.98–12.17 | 18.0711.59–24.55 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.38–5.61 | 4.35 | 2.93–5.76 | 2.45–6.25 | 7.843.82–11.86 |
| Corners | 5.31 | 3.10–7.51 | 2.50–8.11 | 5.18 | 3.20–7.16 | 2.66–7.69 | 10.485.17–15.80 |
| Possession % | 44.00 | 37.68–50.32 | 36.09–51.92 | 55.16 | 48.84–61.48 | 47.24–63.07 | — |
| Passes | 425 | 360–490 | 342–508 | 513 | 449–578 | 431–596 | 938773–1103 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.03 | 68.81–77.24 | 67.51–78.54 | 78.13 | 73.63–82.64 | 72.30–83.97 | — |
| Fouls | 9.67 | 6.82–12.53 | 5.93–13.42 | 10.09 | 7.14–13.03 | 6.22–13.95 | 19.7612.16–27.37 |
| Offsides | 1.89 | 0.68–3.10 | 0.34–3.45 | 1.56 | 0.40–2.73 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.460.41–6.51 |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 | 0.66–2.77 | 0.38–3.04 | 1.78 | 0.66–2.90 | 0.37–3.19 | 3.500.76–6.23 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.11 | 1.70–4.52 | 1.31–4.91 | 2.52 | 0.97–4.08 | 0.54–4.51 | 5.631.84–9.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
26%
42%
Shots on target
42%
13%
45%
Total shots
38%
54%
Shots in box
45%
46%
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
42%
49%
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+