Championship· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 | 1.00–2.93 | 0.74–3.19 | 1.16 | 0.30–2.02 | 0.05–2.26 | 3.120.79–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 5.91 | 4.05–7.76 | 3.55–8.26 | 4.46 | 2.75–6.16 | 2.28–6.63 | 10.365.83–14.89 |
| Total shots | 15.86 | 12.15–19.56 | 11.12–20.59 | 12.30 | 8.92–15.68 | 7.99–16.61 | 28.1519.11–37.20 |
| Shots in box | 11.48 | 8.96–13.99 | 8.09–14.86 | 7.49 | 5.19–9.79 | 4.39–10.59 | 18.9612.48–25.44 |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 | 2.47–5.64 | 1.94–6.17 | 3.35 | 1.93–4.76 | 1.45–5.25 | 7.403.39–11.42 |
| Corners | 6.14 | 3.93–8.34 | 3.34–8.94 | 4.07 | 2.09–6.05 | 1.56–6.59 | 10.214.89–15.52 |
| Possession % | 57.07 | 50.75–63.39 | 49.15–64.98 | 41.48 | 35.16–47.80 | 33.56–49.40 | — |
| Passes | 548 | 483–613 | 465–631 | 392 | 327–456 | 309–474 | 940775–1105 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.74 | 72.52–80.96 | 71.22–82.26 | 71.21 | 66.70–75.71 | 65.37–77.04 | — |
| Fouls | 9.43 | 6.57–12.29 | 5.69–13.17 | 11.55 | 8.60–14.49 | 7.69–15.41 | 20.9813.37–28.58 |
| Offsides | 2.46 | 1.25–3.67 | 0.91–4.02 | 1.53 | 0.37–2.69 | 0.03–3.02 | 3.990.94–7.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.52–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 2.13 | 1.01–3.25 | 0.72–3.54 | 3.710.97–6.45 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.93 | 1.52–4.34 | 1.13–4.73 | 3.44 | 1.88–4.99 | 1.45–5.42 | 6.372.58–10.15 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
22%
Shots on target
62%
27%
Total shots
72%
22%
Shots in box
79%
15%
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
Corners
69%
21%
Fouls
28%
64%
Offsides
58%
19%
23%
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+