Championship· Regular Season - 23· · Toughsheet Community Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 0.73–2.66 | 0.47–2.92 | 1.53 | 0.67–2.39 | 0.42–2.63 | 3.220.89–5.55 |
| Shots on target | 5.43 | 3.57–7.29 | 3.08–7.79 | 4.74 | 3.04–6.45 | 2.57–6.92 | 10.175.64–14.70 |
| Total shots | 14.54 | 10.84–18.24 | 9.81–19.28 | 12.40 | 9.02–15.78 | 8.09–16.71 | 26.9417.90–35.99 |
| Shots in box | 9.61 | 7.09–12.13 | 6.23–12.99 | 8.04 | 5.74–10.34 | 4.94–11.14 | 17.6511.17–24.13 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.38–5.61 | 3.24 | 1.83–4.66 | 1.34–5.15 | 6.742.72–10.76 |
| Corners | 5.85 | 3.65–8.06 | 3.05–8.65 | 4.74 | 2.76–6.72 | 2.22–7.25 | 10.595.27–15.91 |
| Possession % | 48.60 | 42.28–54.91 | 40.68–56.51 | 49.98 | 43.66–56.30 | 42.07–57.90 | — |
| Passes | 407 | 342–473 | 324–490 | 434 | 369–499 | 352–516 | 841676–1007 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.34 | 66.12–74.55 | 64.82–75.85 | 70.39 | 65.88–74.90 | 64.55–76.23 | — |
| Fouls | 11.15 | 8.29–14.01 | 7.41–14.89 | 11.55 | 8.61–14.50 | 7.69–15.42 | 22.7015.10–30.31 |
| Offsides | 1.85 | 0.64–3.06 | 0.30–3.40 | 3.01 | 1.84–4.17 | 1.51–4.50 | 4.851.81–7.90 |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.46–3.11 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 3.801.06–6.54 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.13 | 1.72–4.55 | 1.33–4.94 | 3.35 | 1.79–4.90 | 1.36–5.33 | 6.482.69–10.27 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
23%
35%
Shots on target
52%
35%
Total shots
62%
31%
Shots in box
60%
31%
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
42%
49%
Offsides
22%
16%
61%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+