Championship· Regular Season - 24· · Turf Moor· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 0.77–2.70 | 0.51–2.96 | 0.94 | 0.08–1.80 | 0.00–2.04 | 2.670.34–5.00 |
| Shots on target | 5.14 | 3.29–7.00 | 2.79–7.50 | 3.92 | 2.21–5.63 | 1.74–6.10 | 9.064.53–13.59 |
| Total shots | 14.86 | 11.15–18.56 | 10.12–19.59 | 12.10 | 8.72–15.47 | 7.79–16.41 | 26.9517.91–36.00 |
| Shots in box | 10.04 | 7.52–12.55 | 6.66–13.42 | 7.67 | 5.37–9.97 | 4.57–10.77 | 17.7111.23–24.19 |
| Blocked shots | 4.27 | 2.68–5.85 | 2.15–6.39 | 2.70 | 1.28–4.11 | 0.80–4.60 | 6.972.95–10.99 |
| Corners | 5.73 | 3.52–7.93 | 2.93–8.53 | 4.29 | 2.31–6.27 | 1.78–6.81 | 10.024.70–15.34 |
| Possession % | 58.65 | 52.33–64.97 | 50.73–66.56 | 41.59 | 35.27–47.91 | 33.67–49.51 | — |
| Passes | 517 | 452–582 | 434–600 | 342 | 278–407 | 260–424 | 859694–1024 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.70 | 65.49–73.92 | 64.19–75.22 | 67.58 | 63.08–72.09 | 61.74–73.42 | — |
| Fouls | 10.75 | 7.89–13.61 | 7.01–14.49 | 11.39 | 8.44–14.33 | 7.52–15.25 | 22.1414.53–29.74 |
| Offsides | 1.48 | 0.27–2.69 | 0.00–3.03 | 2.37 | 1.21–3.53 | 0.88–3.87 | 3.850.80–6.90 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.50–2.61 | 0.22–2.88 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.02 | 0.48–3.31 | 3.450.71–6.19 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.91 | 1.50–4.32 | 1.11–4.71 | 3.12 | 1.57–4.68 | 1.14–5.11 | 6.032.24–9.82 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
24%
20%
Shots on target
59%
28%
Total shots
67%
26%
Shots in box
67%
25%
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
23%
19%
57%
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+