Championship· Regular Season - 24· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.40 | 0.21–2.66 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.02–2.24 | 2.560.24–4.89 |
| Shots on target | 4.86 | 3.00–6.72 | 2.51–7.22 | 3.62 | 1.92–5.33 | 1.45–5.80 | 8.483.95–13.02 |
| Total shots | 14.20 | 10.50–17.91 | 9.47–18.94 | 11.11 | 7.73–14.48 | 6.80–15.41 | 25.3116.26–34.35 |
| Shots in box | 10.18 | 7.66–12.70 | 6.80–13.56 | 7.22 | 4.91–9.52 | 4.12–10.31 | 17.4010.92–23.88 |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 | 2.49–5.66 | 1.96–6.19 | 3.12 | 1.71–4.53 | 1.22–5.02 | 7.193.18–11.21 |
| Corners | 5.89 | 3.68–8.09 | 3.09–8.69 | 4.67 | 2.70–6.65 | 2.16–7.19 | 10.565.25–15.88 |
| Possession % | 50.71 | 44.39–57.03 | 42.80–58.62 | 48.31 | 42.00–54.63 | 40.40–56.23 | — |
| Passes | 416 | 351–482 | 333–499 | 408 | 344–473 | 326–490 | 825659–990 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.30 | 63.09–71.52 | 61.78–72.82 | 68.18 | 63.67–72.68 | 62.34–74.01 | — |
| Fouls | 11.31 | 8.46–14.17 | 7.57–15.05 | 10.36 | 7.42–13.31 | 6.50–14.22 | 21.6714.07–29.28 |
| Offsides | 2.00 | 0.79–3.21 | 0.45–3.56 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.94 | 0.28–3.27 | 3.780.73–6.83 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.10 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.680.94–6.42 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.59 | 1.17–4.00 | 0.78–4.39 | 2.72 | 1.17–4.28 | 0.74–4.71 | 5.311.52–9.10 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
26%
30%
Shots on target
60%
27%
Total shots
70%
24%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
Corners
59%
30%
Fouls
54%
38%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
42%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+